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Political unrest continues in Iran, and why it matters to the West
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(AP Photo/Ben Curtis)
Four days after the hotly contested Iranian presidential vote on June 12, hundreds of thousands of people continued to protest on the streets of Tehran after a weekend of clashes among Mir Hossein Moussavi’s supporters, police, and supporters of incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. According to official results, Ahmadinejad was re-elected by a margin of 62 percent to 32 percent for his opponent. Many observers of Iranian politics find the result incongruous leading to allegations that the vote was rigged.
Polls taken just before the election showed a tight race between the ultra-hardline Ahmadinejad and the reformist Moussavi, with many showing Moussavi in the lead. Moreover, the turnout of 85 percent should have been a net positive for Moussavi, given that his youthful, more urban support base has historically abstained from voting.
Allegations of vote rigging stem from the fact that official results show Ahmadinejad winning every province by a similar margin – even the home areas of his opponents. Outrage spread across satellite television and internet over the weekend. As of today, the government has banned international journalists from covering rallies and blocked access to some internet communication.
The decision may ultimately depend on the will of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, who has publically supported the president but may change his mind if events on the “street” show continued revulsion with the alleged vote rigging.
Why does this power struggle matter for the West?
First, there is the issue of Iran’s nuclear program. Ahmadinejad has rejected any compromise on the question of domestic uranium enrichment, whereas Moussavi has indicated that he would be more amenable to negotiations with the permanent UN Security Council members and Germany.
In reality, it is uncertain how much Moussavi would be willing – or able – to substantially change Iran’s nuclear policy. This is because the country’s foreign and security policy, including the armed forces, is under the control of the supreme leader, not the present. Moreover, despite his rhetoric, Moussavi has not outright opposed the nuclear program.
Second is the concern about energy security. Being in the Persian Gulf, oil is at the heart of politics. Iran is the second-largest oil producer within the OPEC cartel, behind Saudi Arabia. In 2008, it pumped roughly four million barrels per day, or close to 5% of the world’s total. Beyond its own output, Iran sits astride the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of the world’s seaborne oil shipments pass every day.
President Obama has expressed “deep concerns” about the situation but is resisting pressure to side with the opposition. And he is right not to take sides during this delicate time. The reality is that this is a domestic affair, and regardless of whether Ahmadinejad or Moussavi is President, the policies may not be very different, because they are driven by Khamenei. If we side with Moussavi now, and he turns out not to be what he had portrayed himself to be and continues the pursuit of uranium enrichment program, then we will have tied our hands. It is better to observe, gather as much intelligence as possible on the internal political landscape, and then act appropriately at the appropriate time.
Sources: CNN, National Business Review, BBC, New York Times.
For history of Iran, please click here.
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