Few people rated Drew Brees as high as I did last season. Among the 20 analysts in the Fantasy Football Index Experts Poll, 16 had him lower than me, and two others had him third - right where I had him.
As it turns out, only a few of us got it right. He was brilliant in 2008.
And here's the scary part: It wasn't for reasons anyone could have foreseen.
I thought Brees would live off swing passes to the NFL's most dangerous back in the flat - Reggie Bush. But Bush caught only 52 passes, the longest of which he took only 42 yards.
Also, I figured Brees would benefit from having a great wideout in Marques Colston and fabulous tight end in Jeremy Shockey. But they both underachieved (due in large part to injuries), combining for just 97 catches and five touchdowns.
So how did it happen? Because Brees was so good, he made someone named Lance Moore a fantasy star and put a half-dozen others on the fantasy map.
This year, Bush, Colston and Shockey should be better, and last year's surprises should relish lesser roles. It could add up to even bigger numbers for last year's No. 1 quarterback.
So why is Brees rated second to Tom Brady in my ratings? Because you can be awfully good and still not reach the level of the greatest of all-time, which Brady was last time we saw him healthy.
Brees is a first-round pick, no doubt about it. If you choose late and he slips to you, consider yourself lucky.
2009 Fantasy Football Draft List: Quarterbacks
1. Tom Brady, Patriots. Why he's No. 1.
2. Drew Brees, Saints.
Who's No. 3? Click here to find out.