Oregon Ducks may be just what the Golden Bears need right now

January 23, 9:14 PMCal Bears ExaminerRob Calonge

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Saturday afternoon the California Golden Bears (15-4, 4-2 Pac-10) will host an Oregon Ducks (6-13, 0-7 Pac-10) team that would seem to be a much weaker opponent.  I seem to recall saying the same thing about an Oregon State team that proved to be better than expected.

This time, the result should be much different.  The Beavers have been losing games due to inconsistency, which showed during their victory over Cal on Thursday night.  For the first ten minutes of the second half, they did plenty to lose the game, but in the second ten minutes, they played as if they were a ranked team.  On the other hand, Oregon is consistent; consistently bad.

That's not to say that the Ducks can't win this game.  Here at the Cal Bears Examiner, we learn from our mistakes - there is no easy game or sure bet in the Pac-10.  The Ducks come into Haas Pavilion on a seven-game losing streak hoping to steal one on the road and get themselves on track.  The Bears are coming off a loss in which could make the most die-hard fan suicidal.  Unfortunately for Oregon, the Cal loss will only make them a team more desperate for a win.

There are four stat rankings that you need to know about this game: scoring offense, scoring defense, turnovers per game, and personal fouls per game.  The Ducks, out of 330 Div I teams, are ranked 140th in scoring offense, 317th in scoring defense, 264th in turnovers per game, and 317th in personal fouls per game.  The Bears are superior in every category: 53rd in scoring offense, 126th in scoring defense, 24th in turnovers per game, and 42nd in personal fouls per game.

Instead of throwing out the rankings, here's the tale of the tape:

Oregon has a very small lineup.  Their tallest player is 6'10" Michael Dunigan.  Dunigan is averaging 5.3 rebounds, 9.5 points, and 1.2 blocks per game in only 20.4 minutes.  He would probably play more, but with little help in the post, he has had issues with foul trouble.  Halfway through the season, he's averaging 3.1 personal fouls per game.

If you thought the 5'10" Jerome Randle was a short basketball player, you'll be even more intrigued by Oregon's 5'6" junior guard, Tajuan Porter.  He may not be as tall as Randle, but he's just as important to his team.  He leads the Ducks in scoring, averaging 13.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.2 steals per game.  His shooting accuracy isn't as good as Randle's (.367 FG%, .361 3pt%), but if you foul him you can expect him to sink his free-throw shots (.903 FT%).

With a small team, passing and ballhandling is a must.  The Ducks have four players, including Porter, that average over 1.5 assists-per-game.  Junior 6'6" forward, Joevan Catron, leads the Ducks in assist average.  He currently averages 2.6 apg, but has one fewer than 6'1" point guard, Garrett Sim, who has 47 for an average of 2.5 apg.

This game should be an exhibition in fast break scoring.  The Ducks don't have the defense to stop the Bears, and both would rather play an up and down full court game.  While the Cal Bears may be reeling right now, this is a perfect opportunity to get a foothold on the slide they're on.  All signs point to the Bears, but if Randle is still ailing from the hip-pointer from Thursday night, it could even things up a bit.

Cal Bears Examiner prediction (with Randle): California Golden Bears 87 - Oregon Ducks 71
(without Randle): California Golden Bears 73 - Oregon Ducks 64

Check back after the game for the post game recap and stats!

SEE ALSO:

Historic run starts with players
Montgomery isn't the only first year coach making impact
Washington trip may propell Bears to tourney

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