Bears will attempt to claw out a victory at Maples

January 15, 4:03 PMCal Bears ExaminerRob Calonge

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The Stanford Cardinal (11-3, 1-3 Pac-10), like the California Golden Bears (15-2, 4-0 Pac-10), have also returned to the Bay Area after having a weekend trip to the state Washington.  Unlike the Bears, the Cardinal haven't returned with as much praise as their rival across the bay.  The Cardinal lost two very close games by a combined total of just two points.  Two points!  Instead of meeting up with Cal as an underdog on their home-floor, they could be facing the Bears for Pac-10 supremecy with a 13-1 record and 3-1 in the Pac-10.

That's why games aren't played on paper.  On paper, this game looks to be another easy victory for Mike Montgomery and company, but the reality is that the Bears will need to play much the same way they did last weekend in order to come out on top.  Of course, they'll want to improve their play, but they'll need to keep the same focus and determination that resulted in victories over two very tough opponents on their own floors.

Cal will be relying on their defense when they come to Stanford on Saturday, particularly the defensive play of the reigning Pac-10 Player of the Week, Patrick Christoper.  Christopher will be facing off against Stanford's top scorer, Anthony Goods.  Goods has led the Cardinal averaging 17.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.8 apg, and 0.9 spg.  The Bears will have to watch Goods when he's in three-point range, since his accuracy (.400 3pt%) is better from their than the rest of the floor (.393 FG%).

Christopher will present his own problems for the Cardinal.  He's currently on a streak of four 20+ point games in a row, which is a big part of the reason that he's been the Pac-10 Player of the Week two weeks running.  He's shooting 47.7% from the field along with 41.7% of his three-point attempts going in.  Christopher is currently averaging 16.1 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.9 apg, 0.8 spg, and 0.2 bpg.  Even though this game will be made to be about Montgomery coming back to Stanford, Christoper -vs- Goods will probably be the most interesting to watch.

Stanford and Cal will be pretty even in terms of size on the court, with Stanford having a slight edge.  6'8" forward Lawrence Hill (13.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.6 apg 1.1 spg, 0.7 bpg), 6'7" swingman Landry Fields (11.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.6 spg, 0.6 bpg), and 6'8" F/C  Josh Owens (10.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.0 bpg), have been able to help Stanford get buckets close to the basket while keeping them somwhat competitiive in rebounds.  For the year, Stanford is ranked 207th in rebound margin out of 330 schools ranked in NCAA Div I.

Stanford is very good in three categories that may spell trouble for the Cal Bears; three-point field goal defense (13th), turnover margin (14th), and assist to turnover ratio (34th).  Mitch Johnson can be thanked in large part for some of that.  The 6'1" senior point guard carries with him a 1.7/1.0 assist to turnover ratio of his own and averages 7.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 4.6 apg, 1.6 spg, and 0.1 bpg.

None of these stats should strike much fear in the Bears.  They come into the game with more than a handful of rankings in the top 50; scoring offense (45th), scoring margin (34th), FG% (14th), 3pt% (1st), FT% (45th), assists per game (49th), assists to turnover ratio (18th), turnovers per game (25th), and personal fouls per game (45th).  Stanford also runs a passing offense, meaning they'll be trying to move the ball around plenty and get the Bears to play more of a half-court game.  The Bears just got done beating a team better at doing that in Washington State.

Jerome Randle has suffered through a rough patch of late, but it hasn't stopped him from being the spark plug for this Cal offense.  Even with two tough outings in Washington, he still leads the Bears in scoring averaging 19.1 ppg while also contributing in other ways when necessary.  His other season stats are 3.4 rpg, 4.9 apg, 0.8 spg, .522 FG%, and .494 3pt%.

With Stanford's Hill being a threat to score, Harper Kamp should see some playing time guarding him.  Kamp has been called, "a second coach on the floor," and said to be, "just so smart," that he adds another dimension on both sides of the court for the Bears.

When it comes to three-point shooting, it's difficult to leave Theo Robertson out of the discussion.  He's shooting an astounding .593 from three-point range.  That shooting has helped him to be Cal's third leading scorer.  For the season, he's averaging 12.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.1 apg, and 0.4 spg.  As Ben Braun recently told me, "He anchors the defense and allows everybody else to be better."  That is probably what has been the biggest difference in this Bears team from last season - having Robertson back on the court.

Another Bear getting more time on the court this year is Jamal Boykin.  After a slow start, he's starting to make an impact both defensively and on the offensive side as well.  So far this season, he's leading the Bears in rebounding, averaging 6.1 rpg.  He's also finding his scoring niche' as he's averaging 9.2 ppg in only 20.8 mpg.  If someone other than Goods starts getting productive for the Cardinal and Kamp already has his hands full, expect to see Boykin move over to that guy.

While this game isn't on paper, it's important to realize that the Bears have only won once in their last 15 visits to Maples Pavilion.  This isn't the same Bears of the 13 game losing streak and it's definitely not the same Cardinal team.  If Cal can have the same resiliency that they've had at UNLV, Utah, and both Washington schools, the record for the last 15 years won't make a difference.

Cal Bears Examiner prediction: California Golden Bears 64 - Stanford Cardinal 57

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