Bears will need to play smart against Tigers

It wasn't supposed to be like this for Pacific.  They weren't supposed to be starting the season as underdogs this year.  In fact, they were expected to not only be the favorites in the Big West, but also be the second best college basketball team in California.  That is, second only to national power-house UCLA.  A team that was supposed to be strong, big, athletic, and experienced was the team that Bob Thomason and Tigers fans expected to come into Berkeley and give Mike Montgomery his first loss as a Bear.

It all began in May of last year.  The story is rather fuzzy and all of the details have never been fully disclosed, but here's a really brief summary.  Apparently, three of the men's basketball players and a female basketball player were at a party or partying together, it's really not clear.  Something sexual in nature occurred and somehow it was classified as a sexual assault.  There's been so much speculation and clarification about the case that it appears that there was consensual sex between the four student-athletes while the female victim was under the influence of drugs or alcohol.

It took the victim at least a month before she stepped forward and reported the transgression, causing Pacific to conduct an investigation and judicial review.  The victim didn't file a criminal complaint, but the damage was done for the male athletes involved.  Senior center / power forward, Michael Nunnally, was suspended for the year along with senior point guard and Big West Player of the Year candidate, Steffan Johnson.  Shooting guard / small forward Michael Kirby, also a senior, has been suspended for the first semester and can rejoin the team December 20.

If it was forcible rape, do you think I would be at this school?  Do you think they would want me to come back?
- Nunnally in an interview last July

Three starters, the starting back court and the center, and the starting small forward graduating left only power forward, Anthony Brown carrying the torch for the Tigers.  Nunnally will be back next season, but Johnson has moved on to Idaho after being let out of his scholarship by Pacific.  Originally, one of Pacific's best players and projected small forward, Joe Ford, was retiring from basketball due to severe shin splints that required the insertion of a rod in his leg.  I'm guessing Thomason had to be wondering what he'd done to deserve all of the bad karma.

Things appear to have improved since the lowest point over the summer.  Ford's leg healed enough for him to rejoin the team, and at 6'6" is poised to be a very imposing point guard for the Tigers.  Yes, point guard.  Pacific still has a roster full of talent and Thomason is still one of the best coaches in the country that nobody has ever heard of.

What makes this a tough game for Cal is that defense is the biggest weakness for the Golden Bears, while the Tigers have talent-laden lineup full of pure shooters and defensive specialists.  Where Cal gains on Pacific in athleticism, the Tigers take the advantage on disciplined players in a system run at Pacific for the past 21 years.

PG - Joe Ford (Pacific) vs Jerome Randle (Cal) : The 6'6" Ford not only has an eight inch height advantage on the 5'10" Randle, he's long for his size as well.  Last season, and his freshman year, he was often used to guard the opponents best scorer and would often be seen guarding power forwards as well as shifty point guards.

Randle has an advantage in that he has more experience at the point, but he has been dangerous to his own team with a 1.25 assist to turnover ratio last year.  Ford, who obviously had one-third the overall totals while playing the three, had a 1.15 A/T ratio, so both players will look to be better this season.

Randle needs to concentrate on creating plays for the rest of his team, but he'll need to score when Ford isn't draped all over him, because that means he's shutting someone else down.

SG - Chad Troyer (Pacific) vs Patrick Christopher (Cal) : Troyer 6'4" 190 lbs, matches up well with Christopher 6'5" 215 lbs, but Christopher has the advantage when it comes to making his own shot and a slight advantage in size and athleticism.  Both will shoot the lights out if they're given the opportunity.

Christopher was Cal's second-leading scorer last season averaging 15.1 ppg, but his three-point shot needs work.  He shot the three successfully 33.3% of the time, which is not the percentage of a player who should be launching them often.  There's a chance that Ford will switch to cover Christopher, so he'll have to take reliable shots and be careful with the ball.

Troyer doesn't have trouble hitting the three.  He had a .451 field goal percentage and a .443 three-point percentage last year.  40% of his shots were from beyond the arc and a season later, he should be even better.  It will be important that Christopher, or whoever is guarding Troyer, follow him outside and defend the shot.  If the Bears don't do that, Troyer will feed off of it all night.

SF - Terrell Smith (Pacific) vs Theo Robertson (Cal) : At 6'6" 225 lbs, Robertson has a size advantage over the 6'4" 205 lbs sophomore Smith.  This is one area that Pacific can match up with Cal in terms of athleticism.  Smith is one of Pacific's highest rated recruits in years and has yet to realize his potential.  Robertson has experience to go along with the athleticism and will probably be manned by Ford most of the game because of it, while Smith will shift down to Randle.

Smith played sparingly in his freshman season and had trouble translating his game to the unselfish pass first-shoot second style that Pacific plays.  He had a horrendous .56 A/T and averaged only 9.8 mpg because of it.  By the end of the year, it's very possible that he'll be every bit as good as Robertson would've been last year, but he will struggle to be as good as Robertson is today.

Robertson, in the lone exhibition game for the Bears, scored 29 points and was every bit the star that some has him pegged to be.  He'll need to let the game continue to come to him and be unselfish when it's required.  He'll be the primary scorer for the Bears if the Tigers can't cover him.

PF - Anthony Brown (Pacific) vs Jamal Boykin (Cal) : This is an intriguing match up.  The highly decorated Brown (All Big West Freshman, Conference 2nd team, Honorable Mention) against Cal's returning Hustle Award winner from last season.

Boykin (6'8" 230 lbs) transferred to Cal from Duke and made an impact last season by averaging 7.8 points in 19.4 minutes-per-game.  What makes him dangerous is his ability to shoot the ball selectively.  He had a .506 field goal percentage and only had 15 three-point attempts for a .467 percentage from beyond the arc.  Being able to face up or play with his back to the basket is what makes him a big weapon for Cal.

Brown has the talent, but not the consistency.  He's often been able to play down low, but he can also turn around and get the jumper.  He had a .554 field goal percentage and he was one-for-one on his lone three-point attempt.  Brown averaged 10.7 ppg and 7.2 rpg, but he has had games where he's doubled both of those averages in the same game.  The problem for Brown is that he's also had games where he's halved the averages.  Brown has trouble with high motor defensive players, but while Boykin is high motor, he's not known for his defense.

C - Sam Willard (Pacific) vs Jordan Wilkes (Cal) : Willard is basically in the game to make opponents adjust their shots and get rebounds.  Unfortunately for Cal, Wilkes is in there for the same reasons.  The 7'0" 225 lbs Wilkes, out-sizes Willard who stands at 6'9" and weighs 210 lbs.

Wilkes will be relied upon to be a defensive presence in the paint.  To this point in his Cal career, he hasn't been able to fulfill the promise of his size and pedigree.  He has center height with small forward game which makes him a liability when defending the bucket.

Willard isn't as athletic as Wilkes and probably doesn't have as good a game either, but he can clean the glass better.  Fortunately for Willard, that's all he'll be asked to do, and that's why he'll have the advantage on the leaner Wilkes.

Final Analysis : Cal likes to play an up-tempo game.  Mike Montgomery would like to see them slow opponents down when they are on defense, and eventually he'll get his wish.  With only one exhibition game to work out the kinks, a young team learning a new system, and a match up that doesn't favor them, the Bears face an uphill challenge against the Tigers.

The Tigers, with all of the turmoil that they've had to endure since the end of last year, still field a lineup that knows how to play Tigers basketball.  All except for one of their starters has played two years or more for Pacific, and in college basketball experience is everything.

Unless Ford can't handle the point as well as Thomason and Pacific needs him to, the Tigers will prove to be the better team for now.  At the end of the year, that could be a completely different story, but for now the Bears will need to play defense better than they ever have if they want a chance to win.

Pacific 68 - Cal 63