Can the Sun Devils bring the heat to Berkeley?

October 3, 10:03 PMCal Bears ExaminerRob Calonge

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Can the Bears keep the Devils in hiding?

If you believe in preseason polls, which I do not, then the Arizona State Sun Devils should have no trouble beating Cal on Saturday.  The only problem with that premise is that sports have and always will be a 'what have you done for me lately' affair when it comes to prognostications.  Take my word for it, as someone who covers the Raiders at TFDS for MVN.com, I hear plenty about the past when it comes to the Raiders desperation today.

So, as we speak of today and the Sun Devils, we have to talk about the letdown that they've already had to suffer when they lost to lowly UNLV three weeks ago.  For the record, when it comes to football, I like UNLV.  What's not to like?  They are the lovable loser that plays in a town that keeps your transgressions there (what happens in Vegas...), unless of course, the story is too good to pass up.

Losing to UNLV must have been worse than what it was like for Cal to lose to Oregon State last year.  We're talking about a school (UNLV) that until this season, hadn't won more than two games since 2003, when they won six.  The hangover continued in ASU's last game when they were stonewalled by #11 Georgia (the Bulldogs were ranked #3 at the time).  In that game, the Sun Devils gained only 212 yards on offense, only four of those yards came on the ground.  After that, the fingers began to point in the locker room, a sign that leadership is missing.

If you can't run the ball, no way you can win the game, even if you have like 10 receivers out there.
- ASU receiver Mike Jones after the Georgia loss

ASU has one thing going for them coming into the game - Cal is not ranked.  The Sun Devils are only 3-26 since 2000 against the Top 25.  This will also be the Sun Devils' first afternoon game of the season.  In all of Arizona's games this season, they've played in the evening from 5pm PST to 7pm PST due to the desert heat of Arizona, which brings up the fact that this is also their first road game of the year.

Coming into Memorial Stadium on a two-game losing streak does not bode well for Arizona State.  Since 2004, the Bears have lost only four games at home - two apiece to Oregon State and USC.  You might recall that Oregon State has a knack for beating USC as well.

Last year, a 4th-ranked ASU team beat the Bears in Tempe, Arizona 31-20.  That Bears team was coming off of the heart-breaking loss to Oregon State, getting beat by UCLA, and the hangover was still in the process of destroying Cal's aspirations long after they lost to ASU.  This Bears team is not suffering from those same effects.

The Bears may not be ranked, but they have been dominating for most of the season.  Despite a couple of bad plays against Michigan State and a bad first half against Maryland, the Bears have torched opposition on offense, defense, and special teams.  They haven't been perfect.  They've been more Jekyl-Hyde than Superman when it comes to their play on the field.

Last week, the Bears scored 28 points through the first three quarters - 7 on a punt block, 7 on an interception return, 7 on a punt return, and 7 points on touchdown drive started from the Cal 42.  Going into the fourth-quarter, the game was practically over with a score of 28-0.

Although the Bears had no trouble scoring, if your defense/special teams is scoring three-times the points of your offense, you probably don't need to score many points.  Where the problem surfaces is that Pac-10 teams normally have explosive offenses.  In other words, the Cal offense needs to be more productive.  In a season where you've already set a school record for most 80+ yard touchdown runs in four games, it's puzzling that the Cal offense is an issue when it comes to scoring.

Everybody has heard that we're evaluating our quarterbacks, but that position is not the only one. We always look at every position, whether it be quarterback or safety or punter, and we want to put our best options on the field.
- head coach Jeff Tedford about the Cal QB competition

California Golden Bears (3-1, 1-0) ; Last Week : Won vs Colorado State Rams 42-7

 Keys on Offense: The Bears need to figure out who is going to be the best to lead their team at the quarterback position.  With that said, either Nate Longshore or Kevin Riley have to give the rest of the offense and the coaching staff the confidence that they can get the job done.  Each has proven that they can perform at high levels, but neither has been able to sustain that level of play on a consistent basis.  For the Bears to beat the Sun Devils, they need the quarterback spot to not only avoid the big mistakes, but also be able to capitalize on the mistakes of ASU.

Starting tailback Jahvid Best, left tackle Mike Tepper, and starting left guard Chris Guarnero won't be playing.  Guarnero is out for the year, Tepper isn't expected back anytime soon, and Best is out at least two weeks.  The offensive line has struggled at times with the lack of continuity.  Last week, redshirt freshman Mitchell Schwartz moved to left tackle from the right tackle spot.  Chet Teofilo, who had been starting at left tackle, has been moved to right tackle.  In order for the Bears to adequately replace their star tailback, they need the offensive line to be cohesive front that opens holes for Shane Vereen and Tracy Slocum.

The return game needs to continue to be one of the stronger units on the field for the Bears.  In a game with a talented team like Arizona State, field position will play a big part in the battle for momentum.

Keys on Defense: With the Bears providing three scores and setting up another, while only letting up one garbage touchdown, it's difficult to find anything for Cal to improve upon.  First, nose tackle Kendrick Payne went out for the year, and now Rulon Davis is going to be out for six weeks.  Cameron Jordan will move into the starting defensive end spot to take the place of Davis.  The Bears need for their line to continue solid play against the run and provide the pressure on the quarterback to limit the pass.

In the secondary, Syd'Quan Thompson is showing why he'll be a first day pick when he graduates, but now Darian Hagan is becoming the bookend that will help strike fear in opposing quarterbacks.  Cal needs for these two to continue to play like they have along with the rest of the secondary.  The Bears have the talent at the linebacking position, but with the injuries on the defensive line, the secondary will be the key to stopping the Sun Devils' passing game and a must stopping the run.

Our kickoff team needs work, and that all starts with the kicker. It's imperative that we keep the ball in the field of play and give everybody a chance to make plays. We're going to continue to work hard with our kickers so that they improve.
- Tedford on the kickoff team

As we've said already, the Bears have been great on special teams.  The one place that they haven't been so great, is in the kickoff game.  The Bears have had to overcome poor kickoffs, whether they are kicked out of bounds or far too short.  If Cal can find a kicker that can pin return teams back, it might make their defense even better than it's been.

Arizona State Sun Devils (2-2, 1-0) ; Last Week : BYE - Last Game: Lost vs #11 Georgia 27-10

 Keys on Offense: The Sun Devils may have the best quarterback in the conference right now.  Rudy Carpenter leads the Pac-10 in passing efficiency and Arizona State not only leads the conference in passing, but they're ranked 13th in Div I.  His top target, Mike Jones, the second-leading Pac-10 receiver coming into the game.  Carpenter and the Sun Devils have been so good in passing that they bring four of the Pac-10's top 20 receivers.  Jones (2nd), Kerry Taylor (8th), Kyle Williams (13th), and Chris McGaha (19th) all provide Carpenter with reliable targets down the field.  The matchup of the Sun Devils receivers versus the Bears secondary is worth more than the price of the tickets to the game.  ASU has to win or tie this battle.

Against Georgia we didn't run it. It's that simple. If I had a do-over, if I had a mulligan, I would just go in and run it more to give us a chance to run. I don't know if it has anything to do with anything other than saying, `let's make a commitment to running it more,' and we are going to do that now.
- coach Dennis Erickson on the running game struggles against Georgia

With such a good passing game, it would seem that the Sun Devils never have a problem moving the ball.  When your quarterback ranks as your second-leading rusher and your starting tailback has been injured, the passing game becomes easier to overcome for an opponent.  The Sun Devils only rushed 19 times for a meager four yards against Georgia.  That has to change against the 29th ranked Div I rushing defense in Cal.

The Sun Devil return team needs to take advantage of an inconsistent Cal kickoff unit and turn the field into short drives for the offense.  Somehow they also need to make the booming kicks of Cal's freshman punter, Bryan Anger, become an advantage for their punt returns.

Keys on Defense: ASU must put the game in the hands of Cal's two-headed monster at quarterback.  In order to do that, they'll have to stop the Bears' running attack.  With the 68th rushing defense facing the 22nd rushing offense, the Sun Devils will have their hands full.  Luckily for Arizona State, Cal's starting tailback and the Pac-10's third ranked rusher won't be playing.  The problem is that his backup, Vereen, is equally as capable of doing the job.  If they can stop the Cal running game, they will be on their way to winning the game.

If the Sun Devils can put Cal into third-and-long situations, that would provide Dexter Davis the opportunity to add more sacks to his already top rated statistics.  Davis is tied for first in the Pac-10 in sacks.  It's his ability to rush the passer that could cause the Bears trouble all day long.  The second best battle of the day will be Cal's Div I 41st ranked passing offense against ASU's 44th ranked passing defense.  If the Sun Devils can cause and capitalize on Cal mistakes, they could shock Bears fans.

We better shore it up. They block punts, they return punts, and they've scored I believe, three or four times on special teams this year.
- Erickson on the matchup with Cal's special teams

The Sun Devils have had a blocked punt already this season.  They also have shown to be spotty on return coverage.  Cal has shown that they can beat teams in this area with at least one great play in every game this season.  ASU most likely won't be victorious in this area, but they need to hold their own, not allow any blocks, and prevent any touchdown returns.  It's possible that the Sun Devils could win in all other areas and lose the game by losing in this one critical matchup.

Cal Bears Examiner Prediction: Cal 31 - Arizona State 20