Colorado Rockies: Goodbye, Matt Holliday. And maybe Garrett Atkins, too

November 9, 10:57 AMMLB ExaminerTony DeMarco

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The further their stunning 2007 National League pennant gets in the rear-view mirror, the more the reality of the Colorado Rockies becomes clear:

Because of ownership that either can't or refuses to play with the game's financial big boys, the Rockies are destined to the treadmill of producing top talent they can't hold onto long-term. And that is a dangerous place to be for the psyche of a team and its fan base.

Yet in the very near future, All-Star left fielder Matt Holliday will be traded. And it's also quite possible that third baseman Garrett Atkins will follow Holliday out of town.

Holliday is a season away from free agency, and quite possibly a contract that could reach nine figures. The Rockies weren't willing to come close to that figure in negotiations that ended last spring, and now the two sides realize a parting is inevitable, as feelings have been strained.

Whether it's the Cardinals and a package centered on Ryan Ludwick, a package of young players from the Phillies, or another possibility such as the Rays or A's, Holliday -- the best position player the Rockies have produced since Todd Helton -- will finish his career elsewhere.

Trading for Holliday is tricky on two fronts. It is likely that Holliday -- who grew up in tiny Stillwater, Oklahoma, and is married with two young boys -- would be open to staying in a baseball hotbed such as St. Louis -- as opposed to a Los Angeles or New York. But, he is a Scott Boras client, and Boras likes to take his clients to the open market for the biggest deal available.

There also is the question of taking Holliday away from Coors Field, which isn't the offensive monster it used to be, but still is one of the game's most hitter-friendly parks. Holliday's home-road splits are wide, but not absurdly so, and he is a better all-round player than people give him credit for -- just look at his 28 stolen bases. He should hit .300 or better anywhere.

From the Rockies' point of view, the trick for GM Dan O'Dowd will be trying to get close to equal value for a free-agent-to-be. What they need most is young pitching, but can they get it? The Phillies seem more intent on hanging onto pitching than replacing Pat Burrell with a high-priced free-agent-to-be, while the Cardinals' offer prompts the question of Ludwick's true value after one breakout season at age 30.

Maybe that will push the A's and Rays to the forefront, as the former has young pitching to spare both at the big-league level and in their system, and the latter has a rotation logjam that could make Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine or top prospect Jeff Niemann available. Of course, in both cases, Holliday would be a one-year rent-a-player proposition, or could be flipped to a big-money contender.

 But it's also quite possible that there is no perfect deal for O'Dowd here, as ownership has backed him into an unenviable corner. Yes, this one will be on ownership -- a tired old refrain for Rockies' fans.

The ideal scenario would be for the Monfort brothers to either sell, or at least take on a substantial partner that would allow for the payroll to be comfortably expanded into the $70-80-million range. But that possibility is nowhere on the horizon, and the only saving grace is that with the exception of the Los Angeles Dodgers, everybody else in the National League West is in a similar state.

• Phillies Examiner Patrick Gallen's view of the Phils' left-field situation
• Matt Holliday's bio

Note: This is the second in a series of team review/previews that will appear between now and the Dec. 7-11 winter meetings. See the first on the San Diego Padres and Jake Peavy here.