Pleasant conditions to start the week, storm threat by Wednesday

November 9, 8:18 AMNJ Weather ExaminerSteven DiMartino

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Water Vapor Satellite Picture This Morning-NWS/NOAA

While high pressure slides off the New Jersey coast over the next 24 hours, a significant storm will be developing over the Gulf Coast as Hurricane Ida and a series of disturbances interact.

Clear skies and very comfortable conditions can be expected through tonight as high pressure moves over the Garden State.  Temperatures will average well above normal, roughly 6 to 10 degrees above normal, with highs in the 60's and lower 70's. 

As the upper level ridge over the Mid Atlantic slides into the Atlantic, clouds will increase as upper level moisture from the Gulf Coast streams northward.  While Tuesday is expected to be another warm day, clouds will increase through the afternoon, which will result in broken to overcast cloud cover by the late afternoon and evening hours.

There is great uncertainty on the potential impacts of the Sub Tropical Disturbance currently over the Southwest and the remnants of Ida over Alabama by Tuesday night.  Some model guidance suggest a coastal low will form off the North Carolina coast and stall over the New Jersey coastal waters.  Others suggest that the whole system will be pushed toward the Bahamas.  While a third solution suggest nothing will happen at all. 

For now, the forecast I suggest would bring a coastal low with the influences of Ida's moisture and energy towards the New Jersey coastal waters on Wednesday night with periods of moderate to heavy rain along the immediate coast and wind sustained winds of 20 to 35 mph with higher gusts.  Parts of western New Jersey can expected lighter intensity rainfall compared to coastal locations, however travel conditions will be hampered.  Significant ponding on the road ways and reduced visibility will be an issue as well.  Portions of northwestern New Jersey, at the highest elevations, may also experience a mixing of snow at times, however no accumulation is expected.  The low pressure system is expected to exit by Thursday morning with clearing conditions thereafter.

I should note that the confidence in this forecast is low and changes are expected as model guidance does not have a strong handle on this situation at all.

High pressure will build into New Jersey on Thursday afternoon and remain in control through Friday with clearing skies and near normal temperatures.  A cold front will move through on Saturday with scattered showers and a reinforcement of Polar air into the region.  High pressure will build into the Mid Atlantic on Sunday and Monday with scattered clouds and near normal temperatures.

Here is the latest seven day forecast.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Today: Clear skies with winds from the south around 5 mph.  Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 60's over the interior and lower to upper 60's to lower 70's along the coast.

Tonight: Clear skies with winds from the southwest around 5 mph.  Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 40's over the interior and upper 40's to lower 50's along the coast.

Tuesday: Increasing clouds with winds backing from the southwest to northeast around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will rise into the upper 50's to lower 60's over the interior and lower to mid 60's along the coast.

Tuesday Night:  Increasing clouds with winds from the northeast around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 40's over the interior and upper 40's to lower 50's along the coast.  

Wednesday:  Rain developing by the afternoon and becoming heavy at times.  Snow may mix in with rain at the highest elevations, but no accumulation is expected.  Winds will be from the northeast around 15 to 30 mph, increasing to 20 to 35 mph with higher gusts.  Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 50's over most locations, with mid to upper 40's over higher elevations.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

Thursday: Clearing skies.  Low temperatures will range from the upper 20's to lower 30's over the interior and mid to upper 30's along the coast.  High temperatures will range from mid to upper 40's over the interior and upper 40's to lower 50's along the coast.

Friday: Clear skies.  Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 30's over the interior and upper 30's to lower 40's along the coast.  High temperatures will range from the upper 40's to lower 50's over the interior and mid to upper 50's along the coast.

Saturday: Broken cloud cover with scattered showers.  Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 30's over the interior and upper 30's to lower 40's along the coast.  High temperatures will range from the upper 40's to lower 50's over the interior and mid to upper 50's along the coast.

Sunday: Scattered clouds.  Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 30's over the interior and upper 30's to lower 40's along the coast.  High temperatures will range from the upper 40's to lower 50's over the interior and lower to mid 50's along the coast.

Monday:  Scattered clouds.  Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 30's over the interior and upper 30's to lower 40's along the coast.  High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 40's over the interior and lower to mid 50's along the coast.