Unsettled conditions along the coast, dry over the interior through this weekend

November 10, 8:08 AMNJ Weather ExaminerSteven DiMartino

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A very complicated pattern is unfolding over the eastern United States that will have a prolonged impact on the New Jersey coast through the week and into this weekend.

As the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida becomes etrained in the Sub Tropical disturbance over the Mississippi Valley this morning, moisture will continue to surge northward.  Meanwhile, a cold front associated with the Polar jet stream will also push a cold front through New Jersey this afternoon.  This cold front is relatively weak, but will become a focal point for moisture to move north and east towards much of the Mid Atlantic.  Meanwhile, high pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to strengthen and move towards western New York. 

The combination of these features will lead to a rather raw, wet, and windy period of weather for the immediate coast.  The high pressure system to the north and the developing low pressure system over the Southeast coast will combine to produce a strong pressure gradient over New Jersey.  As a result, a northeasterly wind will develop by this evening and increase to 10 to 20 mph along the coast with gusts exceeding 30 mph at times.  Locations closer to the Delaware River will range from 5 to 15 mph.  The strength of the high pressure system will keep much of the heavy rainfall south of New Jersey and focused over Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia.  However, with a persistent fetch off the Atlantic starting tonight and lasting through Saturday, overcast conditions and a threat of scattered showers, at times heavy, will be a constant theme along the central and southern New Jersey coast.  However, high pressure, which will move towards New England by Saturday, will keep much of the northern half of New Jersey dry with clearing conditions over northwestern New Jersey. 

The coastal low will finally exit the East coast by Saturday afternoon with clearing conditions Saturday night through Monday morning.  A strong cold front will move through on Monday night with a few scattered showers followed by cooler conditions for Tuesday. 

Here is the latest seven day forecast.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Today: Overcast skies with isolatedshowers developing through the day.  Winds will veer from the west to north around 5 to 10 mph.  Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 60’s throughout the region.

Tonight: Overcast skies with scattered showers along the coast, especially over southern New Jersey.  Winds will veer to the northeast and increase to 5 to 15 mph along the coast and 5 to 10 mph over the interior.  Temperatures will fall into the upper 30’s to lower 40’s over the interior and mid to upper 40’s along the coast.

Wednesday: Overcast skies with periods of showers along the coast, especially over southern and central New Jersey.  Scattered clouds over the interior.  Winds will be from the northeast around 10 to 20 mph along the coast with higher gusts and 5 to 10 mph over the interior.  Temperatures will rise into the upper 40’s to lower 50’s throughout the region.

Wednesday Night: Overcast conditions with scattered showers along the coast, especially over southern New Jersey.  Scattered cloud cover over the interior.  Winds will be from the northeast around 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts along the coast and around 5 to 10 mph over the interior.  Temperatures will fall into the upper 20’s to mid 30’s over the interior and upper 30’s to upper 40’s along the coast.  Warmest conditions expected along the immediate coast.

Thursday: Overcast skies with scattered showers along the coast.  Scattered clouds over the interior.  Winds will be from the northeast around 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts along the coast and 5 to 10 mph over the interior.  Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 50’s throughout the region.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

Friday: Overcast skies with scattered showers along the coast.  Scattered clouds over the interior.  Low temperatures will range from the upper 30’s to mid 30’s over the interior and upper 30’s to lower 50’s along the coast with the warmest conditions along the coast.  High temperatures will range from the lower to mid 50’s over the interior and mid 50’s to lower 60’s along the coast.

Saturday: Overcast skies with scattered showers along the coast.  Scattered clouds over the interior.  Low temperatures will range from the upper 30’s to lower 40’s over the interior and mid 40’s to lower 50’s along the coast.

Sunday: Broken to scattered cloud cover.  Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 40’s over the interior and upper 40’s to lower 50’s along the coast.  High temperatures will range from the lower to mid 50’s over the interior and upper 50’s to lower 60’s along the coast.

Monday: Scattered showers in the evening.  Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 40’s over the interior and upper 40’s to lower 50’s along the coast.  High temperatures will range from the lower to mid 50’s over the interior and upper 50’s to lower 60’s along the coast.

Tuesday: Few to scattered clouds.  Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 30’s over the interior and mid to upper 30’s along the coast.  High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 40’s over the interior and lower to mid 50’s along the coast.