Electoral map update October 15: Obama leads McCain by 109 electoral votes

October 15, 12:17 PMCongress ExaminerIgor Derysh

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With three weeks remaining until election day, it is now a statistical impossibility for John McCain to defeat Barack Obama on election day. After dozens of polls flocked in, showing the exact same thing, Barack Obama is projected to win with more than 300 electoral votes in the most conservative estimates. That estimate is assuming that John McCain will win the six remaining toss-up states. Should the polls hold up as they do now, Obama will defeat McCain with more than 360 electoral votes, an electoral landslide giving Obama a 190 Electoral Vote margin.

Polls lie. We have seen polls be innacurate as recently as the primaries however polls are not inaccurate when dozens of them show the exact same thing. And according to these polls, Obama can now lose every toss-up state and still defeat McCain.

The current Real Clear Politics electoral maps currently look like these:

With Toss-Up States: *Edit 10/15, Florida now deemed to close to call by RCP: Obama 286 EV - McCain 158 EV - 94 EV Too Close To Call

Without Toss-Up States: Obama 364 EV - 174 EV

We now see that the Karl Rove strategy did not cause lightning to strike thrice, as the all negative campaign coupled with the appealing to the base strategy by choosing Sarah Palin as the running mate has gone baneful. That along with the Republicans and especially McCain being blamed for the economic crisis, not unnecessarily as McCain himself pushed for so many economic deregulation bills, has really harmed the McCain campaign and the Republicans running for congressional election and re-election.

The polls have proven that if John McCain continues to employ his current strategy, he has no chance of winning. Even if the McCain-Palin campaign wanted to suddenly alter their strategy, it is improbable to implement it with enough effect that it could change the outcome of the election.

Current Battleground Polls:

Leaning Obama:
Florida (27 EV): Obama up by 5%
Virgina (13 EV): Obama up by 3% to 12%
Minnesota (10 EV): Obama up by 7% to 14%
Colorado (9 EV): Obama up by 4% to 9%
Washington (11 EV): Obama up by 10%

Leaning McCain:
Georgia (15 EV): McCain up by 3% to 9%

Toss Up:
North Carolina (15 EV): McCain up by 3% to Obama up by 5%
Ohio (20 EV): McCain up by 2% to Obama up by 6%
Indiana (11 EV): Tie to McCain up by 7%
Missouri (11 EV): McCain up by 3% to Obama up by 8%
Nevada (5 EV): Obama up by 2% to 7%
West Virginia (5 EV): Not enough data