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Dead Reckoning - Navigation Technique or Sound Business Planning ?
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Dead Reckoning: (Courtesy - Dictionary.com)
n.
1. A method of estimating the position of an aircraft or a ship without astronomical observations, as by applying to a previously determined position the course and distance traveled since.
2. Predictive calculation based on inference; guesswork.
OK- So what is he talking about now?
I seem to be thinking about how these seemingly different worlds of business and seafaring can learn and adapt useful knowledge and therories from one another. After all the first international trade over long distances was carried out by sailing ship captains. Business has always been a part of seafaring, I wonder... how can looking at the basics of seafaring benefit business?
What is Dead Reckoning?
What on the surface first appears as such an ominous term, is in fact an ancient method of finding ones way on the ocean, land or in the air. Before electronic navigation methods (including the now ever present Global Position System) and without the training to use of a sextant for celestial observations, Dead Reckoning was the only way for Captains, Explorers and Airplane pilots to find their way across the vast expanses of our Earth. The Dead Reckoning method of navigation is boiled down to knowing where one started and where one wants to eventually arrive, then updating the progress of the trip frequently along the way. The progress is updated with position "fixes" derived from observations, speed, current and wind estimates, and good old fashioned guesswork. If a "pilot" or "navigator" kept his track updated frequently and applied good guesswork and was reasonable in his/her estimating, he/she would find themselves at the destination intended and the voyage, trek or flight would end safely.
Christopher Columbus found the New World in 1492 using very similar Dead Reckoning techniques that I myself learned as a very young man in the early 1970's (very young indeed). The Ancient Polynesians sailed to the far reaches of the Pacific, some say all the way to Mexico and even Alaska by using these techniques. Using position updating and good estimates of progress is a system that many cultures in all parts of the World have developed independently to find their way to new and exciting destinations.
Business Plan
How do you find your way in business?
All businesses should have a plan... many actually start with a real honest to goodness published business plan. I am sure someone along the way has mentioned using a business plan to you if and when you first contemplated starting and running your own small business. How many of you actually maintain that plan as it was created and intended? If you do not have one and we all know who you are... Get started making a business plan, it is never too late!
Suggestion: Look around, it is possible the actual plan from when you started the business is hidden, tucked away in a drawer or file somewhere - never to be seen again...
Dig it UP
Is Yours Dusty? Dig out your business plan, if you have one, and dust it off... Take a look at what you thought you wanted from your business, how you imagined it would progress and what observations lead you to the conclusions you put down on paper. Now, it's time to take a "fix" (Nautical term meaning mark your position from known data).
Get a Fix
Smart business owners get a fix on their position regularly along the way during the journey that is a businesses life. All businesses start from a known position and it is possible you have been traveling through uncharted waters ever since.
Did you ever take a "fix" and update your business plan?
With a "fix" you can make adjustments to the plan, alter the course of travel and ultimately find your way to the destination that you now remember having in mind when you first put the plan to paper. Dead Reckoning your business along a path to prosperity is a sound and age old way to make sure that the plan does not go off course. Without regular position checks and corroborating information, no business owner will know if he/she is progressing safely or falling off course.
Conditions Change
In any journey, especially those that last as long as it takes to build a profitable business, conditions change. On a voyage it could be the weather, or the current or a torn sail. In business it could be interest rates or the economy or in the case of a lot of my readers... some other entity - say - like eBay changing their business plan and effecting your safe journey to prosperity. Strong navigators, captains and business owners all have the ability to adjust to new and more difficult situations within the span of a single voyage. These successful people know that nothing ever remains the same and they are prepared to adapt, endure and to overcome.
"What separates the winners from the losers is how a person reacts to each new twist of fate".
Donald Trump
Center of Effort
Checking your Dead Reckoning position along the way in your business plan also allows you to have a more complete picture and get a handle on the "Center of Effort" concept I wrote about before. Keeping all parts of the plan balanced and working together encourages efficiency and increases the chances of prosperity. Without a regular update on all aspects of your business, how can you adjust the varying factors that allow for a center of effort condition to exist? Everything you do in business should work towards one common goal - success!
Dead Reckoning Your Way...
... through business, life, and through each of our journeys on this earth is the most reliable way to reach any destination safely. Finding out and marking where it is that you are now, ultimately allows you to get to where you want to be in the future. The only real difference is time, effort and vigilence.
Article originally published on the Trading Assistant Journal
Scott Pooler - All Rights Reserved
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