Could a bicyclist win the Kentucky Derby?

April 30, 6:15 PMDenver Cycling ExaminerGary Koenig

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Horse photo by Adam Coglianese

The media is all swine-flu all the time, but you came here to read about cycling so every word of this post will be strictly bicycling related. Oh sure, I could write about the troubles riders will face trying to get in training miles if the flu goes truly pandemic. But remember we’re focusing on nothing but bicycling here, so let’s get started by discussing…the Kentucky Derby.

With the Derby coming up this Saturday it’s a good time to contemplate that age old question – could a cyclist win the Derby? Before going any further, try this quiz. If Colorado’s own Taylor Phinney had put in his best ride (based on the times he’s recorded in the last few months) in last year’s derby, he would have finished: a) first; b) fourth; c) 12th; or d) last.

Taylor Phinney is a good cycling benchmark for this exercise. Just a few weeks ago he won a world championship on the track at 4K (qualifying time of 4:15.160, an American record) and at the very same meet he set an American record in the 1K event (1:01.611). Using some slick mathematical modeling, we can come up with a pretty good estimate for his time if he ever raced a flat out 2K – 2:05.32. The Derby distance is 1.25 miles, or 2.012 kilometers. Applying that factor to Taylor’s hypothetical 2K time, we can project him finishing at 2:06.07, good enough for 12th place last year.

Yes, we’ve had to make some assumptions here. The Derby is raced on a dirt track, while track cyclists ride on a hard surface, usually an indoor velodrome with banked corners. Phinney’s times were likewise accomplished absent any head or tail winds. But if we put aside the impracticalities of a bicyclist actually racing in the Derby, it’s interesting to see how close in speed the top thoroughbreds and the top track cyclists are.

Although Taylor Phinney is likely to become the fastest man on two wheels by the time he finishes (he’s only 18 years old right now), there are a few track specialists out there who can actually ride a little faster than can he. At the same world championship meet where Phinney set his American records, Germany’s Sefan Nimke broke the world record in the kilo by riding 1:00.666. The world record in the 4K pursuit is currently held by Chris Boardman at 4:11.114. If we blend these world record times, we come up with a hypothetical ultimate time for 1.25 miles of 2:04.14, which would have been good for 5th place in last year’s Derby.

So the answer to the question of the day, is no, a cyclist could not win the Kentucky Derby. But it’s possible, even likely, that at some point in the next 20 years or so, a cyclist will ride a 1.25 mile equivalent time that could win some editions of the Derby. A study has show that Derby times have remained essentially flat for close to 70 years, while bicycling track records continue to slowly edge downward.

If you’re going to watch the Derby on Saturday, watch the split times and try to imagine the world’s greatest cyclists mixing it up with the planet’s fastest race horses. Our top cyclist is theoretically going to hit the following splits: ¼ mile in 26.19, ½ mile in 50.89, ¾ in 1:15.22, 1 mile in 1:39.43 with a finish at 2:04.14. Win or lose, that’s fast.