This post may cost me $272,000

February 16, 11:07 AMDenver Cycling ExaminerGary Koenig

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Dubai, UAE

That’s the maximum fine that could be levied in Dubai under a proposed law that makes it a crime to damage the country’s reputation or economy. I visited Dubai last fall to get in some early season skiing and to check out the bicycling scene in that over-hyped part of the world. As I reported back then, the use of the bicycle for basic transportation was very limited and the opportunities for the ultra small recreational cycling community to get their Ks in was severely constrained by the unbelievable traffic congestion and the stifling summer-time heat and humidity. Macro trends in global warming do not hold much hope that hot summers will abate, but a melt-down of another sort (this one involving most of the world’s economies) has cleared out one of the main obstacles to bicycle commuting and recreational riding.

According to a New York Times article, the formerly car-laden roads of the Emirate have become much less swollen than even three months ago. Expats are leaving by the droves, constructions projects are being stopped in their tracks, the wealth of the entire region is contracting and pricing on used cars, both luxury and utilitarian, is plummeting. Having experienced directly the looming challenges of a city-state built on the artifices of “trade forwarding” and “investment”, I’m not surprised that my predictions of a steep fall in Dubai’s super-overheated economy have started to come to fruition. Not only has the decline been precipitous, the period of wallowing in the bile of a seriously overbuilt and over-hyped fairyland could be protracted.

You’d think that much less traffic congestion and the contraction in the labor market, which is normally accompanied by much lower wages, would encourage many of the poorest residents to take up the bicycle as a basic means of transportation. I haven’t seen any reports focusing on this aspect of the wrenching changes being visited on Dubai at the moment, but I’m guessing that bike commuting is still at a very low level there. The new construction that has defined Dubai over the last 10-15 years has been focused on luxury and the “freedom” brought about by a modern road system and individual auto ownership. Although many luxury abodes are becoming a great deal more affordable by virtue of the steep decline in real estate prices, most workers will still not be able to afford housing close to their jobs and long bike commutes on 110+ days is not very feasible. News reports haven’t said much about the mass transit monorail system that is in the last stages of completion. If that project is allowed to finish, bicycle commuting may actually get a shot in the arm. The monorail is longer than it is broad, so in many cases a worker would still have a fair hike to get to or from a monorail station. Perhaps the bicycle will play a more prominent role in that aspect of commuting.

Recreational cyclists in Dubai may benefit more from the decrease in traffic volumes than will potential bike commuters. The sport cycling community is almost 100% expats, however, so how many of them will still have jobs in Dubai as the economic catastrophe broadens is anybody’s guess. I haven’t had a chance to determine if Wolfgang Hohmann’s bike shop, Wolfi’s, has seen any serious fallout, but back in November there were concerns about the effects the obviously gathering economic storm was going to visit on the bicycle market.

So how bad is the problem in Dubai? No one can (or will) say for sure (see previously cited proposed press censorship law). The Burj al Arab is still insisting on $1500+ per night for one of its rooms, but the 5-star hotel we stayed in late last November is now listing rooms at less than 60% of the rate we paid back then. If you’re thinking about a visit, I’d suggest waiting. It’s likely that Dubai’s problems will lag the rest of the world’s and pricing there will stay depressed longer than in many other places. Who knows – a year from now you might be able to get a cup of tea at the Burj for less than $80!