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Focus on both Afghanistan and Pakistan long overdue - Retired Ambassador Ted Eliot
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A Talk by Retired Ambassador to Afghanistan Ted Eliot on Prospects for Afghanistan presented by the World Affairs Council
Retired Ambassador Theodore L. Eliot Jr. served 30 years in the US Foreign Service, including as Ambassador to Afghanistan from 1973-1978. He now sits on the Board of The Asia Foundation and as an advisor to the Dupree Foundation, both of which focus on Afghanistan.
Former Ambassador to Afghanistan Ted Eliot believes that a US policy that focuses on both Afghanistan and Pakistan is long overdue. At a recent talk in Sonoma County, he welcomed the Obama administration's White Paper of the Interagency Policy Group's Report on US policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan. The danger of failure and the fact that there are no quick fixes are factors that Ambassador Eliot stressed as highly significant in the conflict in Afghanistan.
Any solutions in the region, according to Ambassador Eliot must include a reversal of all Taliban efforts. Substantial immediate action must be taken. Although these are daunting tasks, the alternative is much more dangerous as Afghanis and Pakistanis alike find the security delivered in the hands of police more effective than the security delivered by the Taliban.
During his "Beyond Nationbuilding" speech in 2003, former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said that, "Afghanistan belongs to the Afghans. The objective is not to engage in what some call nationbuilding. Rather it's to help the Afghans so that they can build their own nation. This is an important distinction. In some nationbuilding exercises well-intentioned foreigners arrive on the scene, look at the problems and say let's fix it." As Ambassador Eliot says, this showed a clear indication that the US was interested in focusing on Iraq. He also observes that the Afghanis are aware that the US has deserted them twice. This leads many Afghanis to be very careful in their relations with the US and to continue to keep their ties with the Taliban. Afghanis also are aware that as one of the poorest countries, many have gotten their education through AK47s rather than textbooks. They are also aware that the rural agricultural base has been destroyed.
However, Ambassador Eliot opposes Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld in that he sees that the international community must be included in efforts in Afghanistan. Security in the region is a critical issue that needs to be addressed, especially as we see the insurgency grow. The United States assistance has been mostly through NGO's like the Asia Foundation. While the war is not a popular war, the Obama administration is sending between 17,000 and 21,000 troops to Afghanistan. As Ambassador Elliot has observed, there has been a stalemate with the Taliban. Police are really in bad shape and are underpaid. The US approach and the international approach needs to be more cohesive as a result.
The question is going to be how long does the US want to stay in Afghanistan to deal with the security issues in order to stabilize the region. The Taliban has a limitless supply of young men trained in the Madrasas. Ambassador Eliot acknowledges the Obama administration's military efforts in the region and sees economic development and social development as good solutions to pursue. With the Taliban propaganda machine being very sophisticated, countering these efforts are a crucial factor in establishing peace and stability in the region. US efforts should focus on improving governance to be more effective. A look at the careers of Afghanis shows a lack of engineers, lawmakers, and scientists. A certain effort toward education would remedy this. Ambassador Eliot adds that if the US gives any indication that it is a short term effort, then it is more than likely that the Afghanis will work with those who they believe will provide longer term efforts. The elections in Afghanistan in August are very important and the assistance of the US to secure polling places will increase access to the polls.
The same holds true in Pakistan where events have led Secretary of State Hilary Clinton to declare that Pakistan is a 'mortal threat' to the world while the Pakistani Ambassador in Washington recently shared his interest in not letting the Taliban take over. According to Ambassador Eliot, Pakistan however, still sees its number one enemy as India while it is essential that they see their internal problem really as their enemy. While progress is being made with the Pakistani military taking action, the Pakistani government sees that it can't win in integral parts of Pakistan. However, it must step up to the plate and understand that we can't improve security in their place.
I asked Ambassador Eliot about the subject of globalization. In tackling the subject of globalization as a means to provide economic security in Afghanistan, he sees that increased efforts that promote farmers' use of land to grow specialty crops is a viable solution. Afghanistan cannot join the globalized world unless they produce goods that can be exported. Afghanistan used to export hats, charcoal, fruit and mainly grapes for the production of raisins. Former finance minister, Dr. Ashraf Ghani, currently the Chairman of the Institute of State Effectiveness, a potential presidential candidate in August, promotes getting rid of opium fields and developing agricultural exports for the long-term. Still, the shortage of water and climate change make this difficult.
As far as foreign companies investing in Afghani resources and promoting globalization efforts, China leads the way in mineral exploration. China has a contract to develop copper mines East of Kabul. They are finding minerals for their own economy. The question is will Afghanistan get what they need out of the deal. They may have no choice but to look to foreign companies, however countries like China should train Afghanis to perform the work once the infrastructure is established. Additionally, Afghanistan's aid contracts do not always secure their own interests.
Finally, if Ambassador Eliot were to provide any advise to President Obama for his talks in May with Afghani and Pakistani leaders, it would be to support the realism that President Obama will likely infuse. He would also advise the President to discuss ways that the US can support their efforts in the most effective way possible.
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