Ida weakens to a tropical storm; Hurricane Warnings replaced with Tropical Storm Warnings

November 9, 10:07 AMJackson Weather ExaminerJohnny Kelly

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(NOAA)  Ida weakening over the cooler waters in the central and northern Gulf of Mexico-Monday morning

After encountering much cooler waters and increased shear over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico, Ida weakens to a tropical storm.

As of the latest advisory (12 pm CST), winds were near 70 mph with higher gusts up to 85 mph.  Ida was located less than 115 miles south southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and was moving to the north northwest near 18 mph.  Tropical storm force winds extended out 200 miles from the center of the storm.

Ida is expected to continue weakening throughout the day as she approaches the northern Gulf Coast.  

Because Ida has weakened to a tropical storm with no restrengthening expected, all Hurricane Warnings have been dropped and replaced with Tropical Storm Warnings.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana eastward to Aucilla River, Florida.

Ida is expected to make landfall near Mobile, Alabama-early Tuesday morning with sustained tropical storm force winds between 50 and 60 mph.

Regardless of the intensity at landfall, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and at least tropical storm force winds-greater than 39 mph are likely particularly from the Alabama coast eastward to the Florida Panhandle.

Rains will be increasing well in advance of Ida across the central and eastern Gulf Coast but will become steadier and heavier by Monday into Tuesday.  

Total storm accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 8 inches will be possible through Wednesday morning from the central and eastern Gulf Coast northward into the eastern portions of the Tennessee Valley,  the southern Appalachians and the southeastern United States.

A dangerous storm tide will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level along the coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

(NHC Ida Track)

National Hurricane Center Discussion:

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS BEEN STEADILY DETERIORATING DURING THE MORNING.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE SHORTLY, LEAVING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORMS) NEAR THE CENTER. 

WITH IDA MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR, CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. 

 IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD TODAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN TURN EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM.

THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE CENTER OF IDA IS LOSING SIGNIFICANCE IN TERMS OF THE EFFECTS OF THIS STORM.  

STRONG WINDS COVER A LARGE AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINS ARE MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER.  

THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS IDA WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.