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Hurricane Watch; Hurricane Ida to affect southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast

November 8, 10:20 AMJackson Weather ExaminerJohnny Kelly
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Ida continues to track to the north and northwest and will enter the Gulf of Mexico later today and will affect the northern Gulf Coast by Monday night and Tuesday.

Ida strengthened Saturday night, becoming a category 1 hurricane once again over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Additional strengthening is possible and Ida could reach category 2 strength with winds around 100 mph. 

Hurricane Ida was located over 75 miles northeast of Cozumel, Mexico with winds of 90 mph and higher gusts up to 115 mph.

Ida was moving to the northwest near 12 mph with an expected turn more toward the north as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

While weakening is likely as Ida tracks to the north over cooler waters in the Gulf of Mexico, Ida will likely remain a hurricane as it nears the northern Gulf Coast with tropical storm force winds spreading across Southeastern Louisiana, the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coasts, and the Florida Panhandle by Monday night.

Hurricane Watches have been issued from Grand Isle, Louisiana east to Mexico Beach, Florida.

(Note: Hurricane Watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 36 hours)

(Uncertainty)

Ida could and I emphasis could make landfall in southeastern Louisiana and or on the Mississippi Gulf Coast- late Monday night as a minimal category 1 hurricane or a tropical storm as it begins to turn toward the northeast.   (It is possible Ida could make the turn to the northeast and or to the east much sooner than indicated and miss the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf Coasts altogether as an approaching frontal boundary interacts with Ida)

Regardless of the track, the impacts from Ida will remain the same with coastal flooding, strong gusty winds over 39 mph, and heavy rainfall.

Note: Strong winds out of the east and southeast will pile up water along the coast as Ida approaches  with water levels rising well above normal across Southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi  Gulf Coast with 2 to 5 inches of rainfall possible. This could lead to significant coastal flooding in some locations.

Everyone living along the northern Gulf Coast are urged to stay updated on the latest weather information concerning Hurricane Ida as it becomes available.

National Hurricane Center Discussion:  

 

Ida remains between a mid/upper-level trough over the western Gulf Mexico and adjacent land areas and an mid/upper-level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the northern Caribbean Sea.  

In addition, a strong low-level ridge covers the northern Gulf of Mexico.  

The dynamical models forecast the trough and ridge to move eastward allowing Ida to turn toward the north during the next 36 hr or so.  

Ida will be moving over cooler sea surface temperatures...into a cooler airmass...and into stronger shear.  

The dynamical models agree that extratropical transition should begin by about 24 hours and is likely to be complete in about 48 hr.  

However, the intensity guidance forecasts hurricane-force winds through 48 hr...so the intensity forecast maintains hurricane strength through that time.  While it is likely that Ida will lose tropical cyclone characteristics before reaching the northern Gulf Coast, it is possible that tropical storm- or hurricane-force winds could reach portions of the coast before extratropical transition is complete.  

Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast at this time. 

 

                           (NHC-5 day track)

    

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