Category 2 Hurricane Ida; Hurricane Watches from Southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle

November 8, 3:17 PMJackson Weather ExaminerJohnny Kelly

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Hurricane Ida prompts Hurricane Watches across the North Gulf States

Hurricane Ida intensified into a category 2 hurricane early Sunday afternoon with winds near 100 mph and higher gusts up to 120 mph as it moved northwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Ida was located less than 510 miles south southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.  Hurricane force winds extended outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 140 miles from the center of the storm.

Ida is forecast by most models to make a impact in either southeastern Louisiana, on the Mississippi and or the Alabama Gulf coasts, or on the Florida Panhandle.

Thus, a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Mexico Beach, Florida for the possibility of  hurricane conditions within 36 hours.

While the track of Ida has become more clear, the intensity of Ida remains in question upon impact.

The waters are significantly cooler across the northern Gulf of Mexico with sea surface temperatures  (SSTs) in the 60s in some locations and shear is expected to be much stronger as Ida heads north.

Cool water temperatures and shear are definitely big negatives for any hurricane or tropical system but Ida is expected to increase in forward speed from the current north northwest movement of 10 mph.

This faster forward motion could get Ida into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the face of shear and cooler temperatures as a minimum hurricane and or a strong tropical storm but on the other hand, a slower moving Ida would definitely weaken rapidly before it reaches the coast.

(Weather Underground)

So while there are Hurricane Watches in place, this storm could be severely affected by the shear and the cooler water temperatures only leading to tropical storm conditions.

Regardless of the intensity, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and at least tropical storm force winds-greater than 39 mph are likely from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

This is an ever changing situation and everyone should continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ida as she nears the Gulf Coast States.

(NHC 5-Day Track)

National Hurricane Center Discussion:

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO AND CUBA SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, WHICH MAY BE A SIGN THAT IDA IS BEING AFFECTED BY ONGOING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 

IDA REMAINS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS AND AN MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

 IN ADDITION, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD, ALLOWING IDA TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO.  

ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN BOTH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE MODELS FORECAST LANDFALLS ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE HURRICANE MAY BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE NEXT 6-12 HR.  

AFTER THAT, IDA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INTO A COOLER AIR MASS, AND INTO STRONGER SHEAR. 

WHILE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BEFORE IDA MAKES LANDFALL, IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE CYCLONE WILL COMPLETELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE LANDFALL.  

IN ADDITION, MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST IDA TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  

BASED ON THIS, THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS IDA AS A WEAKENING HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL, THEN FORECASTS EXTRATROPICAL TO FINISH AFTER LANDFALL.

Watches and Warnings prompted by Hurricane Ida

• Hurricane Watch from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Mexico Beach, Florida
• Tropical Storm Watches are in effect across Southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast
• Coastal Flood Warnings across Southeastern Louisiana, the Mississippi Gulf Coast, and the Southeastern Texas Coast
• Coastal Flood Watch is in effect across the Alabama Coast, portions of the Florida Panhandle, and Southwestern Louisiana Coast
• Flood Watch is in effect across Southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast for the potential of 2 to 5 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
• Governor of Louisiana declared a State of Emergency ahead of Hurricane Ida