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Bearscast Over/Under Week 2: Bears vs. Steelers
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Every week on my podcast - Bearscast - my co-host Mr. Payne and I set five Over/Under lines that we think will have an impact on Sunday's game and then make our prediction. Mr. Payne and I are going to keep a running tally this year so we'll find out who is the better prognosticator.
Below are this weeks lines as well as my picks and explanations. Please make your own picks and share your thoughts below in the comment section.
Jay Cutler interceptions: 1.5 UNDER
If you've been reading my analysis on Cutler for a while you know I am fond of the stat that he has only 9 interception-free games over his two years as a full-time starter. The point being that with his tendency to gamble and go for the big play at some point he is usually going to turn it over.
However, Cutler has thrown only one interception 15 of his starts over the last two seasons, so while picks are going to happen the four against Green Bay are still way out of the ordinary.
Consider also how uncomfortable and indecisive Cutler looked in his Bears debut in Buffalo and the vast improvement made in week 2 of the preseason against the Giants. If Cutler demonstrates a similar improvement this week then at worst he throws an interception and gives the Bears a chance to win.
Matt Forte total yards: 100 UNDER
Amidst Cutler's disastrous debut few noticed the quiet opening to the season for Matt Forte, unless of course you had him on your fantasy football team. Forte was limited to 25 carries for 55 yards and also went without a reception after leading the team in that category last season.
Against the Packers Ron Turner got a little pass happy with his play calling and was also keeping his backs in to protect Cutler. While we can expect better run/pass balance this week, the Steelers haven't given up a 100 yard rusher in 19 straight games and given the offensive lines' struggles against the 3-4 last week we should see plenty of Forte hanging in to pick up linebackers.
Bears sacks: 3 OVER
Whether it's the tutelage of Rod Marinelli or the motivation of a contract year Adewale Ogunleye quite possibly played his best game as a Bear last Sunday in Green Bay. And while he racked up two sacks the rest of the defense stayed after it to tally four in total against a suspect offensive line and a quarterback who took 34 sacks last season.
Now the Marinelli's rushmen come home to face another suspect offensive line and a quarterback who took 47 sacks last year.
As I mentioned yesterday the challenge against Rothlisberger is sacking him once you get there and not letting him extend plays and improvise. Based on the pressure both Ogunleye and Alex Brown were applying from the edge as long as the tackles get a half-decent push up the middle Big Ben should be left without an escape route and the Bears will easily match last weeks sack total.
Bears turnovers force: 1.5 OVER
The hallmark of Lovie Smith's Cover-2 defense is forcing turnovers so it was a little surprising to see them go without one against the Packers, especially considering the overall strong play of the defense. It will be crucial that get corrected as the defending champs stroll into Soldier Field.
Thankfully this week the Bears will face a risk taker that nearly matches their own. For all of Rothlisberger's late game heroics he has often tested his defense's ability to keep them in the game with early turnovers, averaging just over one a game last year.
If Charles Tillman or newly minted starter Zack Bowman can come up with a first half pick or fumble recovery to provide the offense with a short field the surge of confidence and early lead would be just what the doctor ordered.
Greg Olsen receptions: 4.5 OVER
After Cutler's decision making the inability to get Greg Olsen involved was easily the most disappointing part of the offenses opening week performance. Last year Olsen caught five or more passes only four times, but fueled by his preseason chemistry with Cutler and the inexperience at wide receiver that was supposed to become the minimum.
Unfortunately the Packers transition in defensive philosophy did not change the way they played Olsen – treating him as a wide receiver no matter where he lined up. On top of that Olsen was also regularly asked to stay in and block as the offensive line proved incapable of handling the Green Bay blitz packages.
Whether the Steelers choose to treat Olsen as a wide receiver or not, it is essential that Ron Turner get him more involved this week. He is the most polished route runner and receiver on the team and if Turner chooses to keep Forte in to block he needs Olsen underneath and providing an outlet for the pressure Cutler is sure to face.
Olsen's receptions might not be big gainers this week, but they will be essential to keeping the chains moving and providing and opportunity to go down field with Hester and Knox later.
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