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Bearscast Over/Under week 11: Bears @ Packers
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Brett Favre's legacy will hang over Sunday's game
The opportunity exists here for the Bears to go a long way in making it a two-team race for the division crown. If the Bears can defeat the Packers in venerable Lambeau Field they will be two games up on the Pack, 4-0 in the division, and at worst still tied with the Minnesota Vikings. Lose and there could be three teams all at 5-5 scratching and clawing over the last six weeks for one playoff berth.
Given the recent success against the Packers under Lovie Smith the Bears should be feeling pretty good. Both defenses' flaws are likely to be exposed as the Pack’s 28th-ranked run defense and the Bears 30th-ranked pass D will be tested early and often. But with Aaron Rodgers taking over for Brett Favre and the Bears still unsure – though optimistic – about Kyle Orton’s status it seems the QBs will decide this one.
And with all that in mind we turn to the Bearscast Over/Under:
OVER/Under: 1 snap for Kyle Orton
It’s the central question surrounding everything the Bears do this week. Sure the defense needs to be fixed, but quarterback is still the glamour position and fans are a little restless after Rex Grossman took a little luster off of it last week. So will Orton play or won’t he?
I'd bet on it and the folks over at the Chicago Sun-Times seem to think so too. With this much on the line and the pressure Lovie is under there would have to be a significant setback in order to keep Orton off the field. If Aaron Rodgers can play with an injury to his throwing shoulder, odds are Orton can tough out a sprained ankle.
OVER/Under: 250 passing yards for Packers
The Packer offense currently ranks 11th with 221 yards per game and the Bears much maligned pass defense is giving up a staggering 252. The Bears secondary won't see a major shake up with the only move being Corey Graham getting the starting nod over Nathan Vasher. And with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and rookie Jordy Nelson providing the first-year starter Rodgers with more than adequate weapons the Bears would seem to be in for another long afternoon.
Compound that with a struggling Ryan Grant facing off against an outstanding run defense and there probably isn’t much motivation for Green Bay to hand it off anywhere between the 20’s. The result should be the fourth straight game where the opposing QB throws over 40 passes. Considering the likes of Kerry Collins and Dan Orlovsky threw for nearly 300 yards, Rodgers shouldn’t have too much difficulty getting over 250.
OVER/Under: 85 receiving yards for Devin Hester
I wrote my defense of Devin earlier this week and Sunday he is going to take a big step towards proving me right. The cornerbacks on the Packers play a similarly aggressive and physical style man coverage that Hester saw last week against the Titans and he handled that fine.
The Packers would be ill advised to ignore the play Hester blew by Cortland Finnegean on just because it fell incomplete, it could be Charles Woodson he leaves in the dust this week. With Orton hopefully back under center those overthrown passes will now be on target and Devin can move closer to establishing himself as a consistent threat at WR.
OVER/Under: 10 Brett Favre references
Whether we like it or not the specter of Brett Favre will hang over this game. This will be the first time in sixteen seasons that the Bears and Packers will square off without Favre on the field and the game holds significance for that if nothing else.
It gets even more complicated as the Jets sit atop the AFC East at 7-3 while the Packers are stuck in third and sub-.500 at 4-5. Despite Rodgers playing just as well if not better than Favre the doubts are going to start creeping in, especially with a loss to the Bears. Let’s all just be thankful John Madden won’t be calling the game.
OVER/Under: 150 total yards for Matt Forte
The bar was set at 125 yards for Forte last week and he squeaked by with 126 while playing an outstanding game overall. Now, in a bigger game against a weaker opponent, the bar needs to be set a little higher. Forte’s contributions as a runner and receiver – the past two weeks especially – can not be understated. But that performance level needs to continue if the Bears are going to hold on in this division race.
Adrian Peterson let loose on the Packers last week after the loss of Nick Barnett to a torn ACL, and on the season the beat-up Packers D has struggled against the run. With Orton taking the snaps Green Bay will need to respect the Bears' ability to throw the ball. That should pave the way for another huge day for Forte.
For more info: get the best game breakdown at Windy City Gridiron.
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Over/Under ·
Matt Forte ·
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Kyle Orton ·
Devin Hester ·
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