Update on the swine flu epidemic

April 27, 7:13 AMDenver Family Health ExaminerMeredith Jameson

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On Sunday, France, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Spain reported potential new cases in which people had been infected with swine flu and Canada confirmed several new cases.

The U.S. has 20 reported cases of the illness in California, Texas, Kansas, Ohio, and New York.

Over 80 people have died in Mexico, causing widespread closure of public events and schools in Mexico City.

Here is some more information about the epidemic:

1. What is a flu epidemic?

A flu pandemic occurs when a new flu virus emerges for which humans have little or no immunity and then spreads easily from person to person around the world. In the 20th century we had two mild flu pandemics, in 1968 and 1957, and the severe "Spanish flu" pandemic of 1918, which killed an estimated 40 to 50 million people worldwide.

The WHO (World Health Organization) is set to meet by April 28 to determine if this has reached pandemic proportions. Currently, there are 6 pandemic phases and this crisis has reached stage 3. If the WHO upgraded that status to phase 4, which is marked by a new virus that begins to pass easily enough from person to person that we can detect community-sized outbreaks, such a move would effectively mean that we've got a pandemic on our hands.

2. So what happens if this gets classified as a pandemic?

Moving the world to pandemic phase 4 would be the signal for serious containment actions to be taken on the national and international level. Given that these actions would have major implications for the global economy, not to mention the effects of the public fear that would ensue, there is concern that the WHO may be considering politics along with science.

If this does get declared a pandemic, the WHO and individual countries will work together to try to slow the spread of the virus. However, containment is unlikely, as cases have already been confirmed in several countries.

3. Is the U.S. ready to deal with a flu pandemic? What about the rest of the world?

Thanks to concerns over H5N1 avian flu, the WHO, the U.S. and countries around the world have stockpiled millions of doses of antivirals that can help fight swine flu as well as other strains of influenza. The U.S. has a detailed pandemic preparation plan that was drafted under former President George W. Bush. Many other countries have similar plans. SARS and bird flu have given international health officials useful practice runs for dealing with a real pandemic.

However, while the WHO can prepare a new swine flu vaccine strain in fairly short order, we still use a laborious, decades-old process to manufacture vaccines, meaning it would take months before the pharmaceutical industry could produce its full capacity of doses - and even then, there wouldn't be enough for everyone on the planet. The U.S. could be particularly vulnerable; only one plant, in Stillwater, Penn., makes flu vaccine in America.

While the global recession may worsen - a 2008 World Bank report estimated that a severe pandemic could reduce the world's GDP by 4.8% - but we depend on international trade now for countless necessities, from generic medicines to surgical gloves. The just-in-time production systems embraced by companies like Wal-Mart - where inventories are kept as low as possible to cut waste and boost profit - mean that we don't have stockpiles of most things. Supply chains for food, medicines and even the coal that generates half our electricity are easily disruptable, with potentially catastrophic results.

These are all factors that international governments, including ours, are no doubt considering.

4. So should we be scared?

No reason for fear just yet. Officials at the CDC and the WHO have emphasized that while the swine flu situation is serious, they're responding with an abundance of precautions. And while it is unknown just how serious the situation will become, with proper precautions, it is hopeful that the virus will remain fairly mild in the U.S., as it has to this point.

5. Why have the cases been more mild in the U.S.?

Experts aren't sure. In Mexico, swine flu has caused severe respiratory disease in a number of patients - and even more worryingly, has killed the sort of young and healthy people who can normally shrug off the flu. Meanwhile, the cases in the U.S. have been so mild that experts might not have even known they were swine flu, if it weren't for the situation in Mexico.

However, Mexico has apparently been grappling with swine flu for weeks longer than the U.S. As doctors across the U.S. begin checking patients with respiratory symptoms for swine flu, CDC officials expect to see more severe cases in the U.S. as well.

You can view the full article here.

Source: Time.com