Post-election analysis: What do the elections yesterday mean for Maryland in 2010?

November 4, 2:12 PMBaltimore Law and Politics ExaminerDilip Paliath

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There were several elections around the country yesterday, the most significant ones being the GOP wins in Virginia (Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General) and New Jersey (Governor).

The pundits have taken sides on whether these races were a referendum on President Obama or not. They have also weighed in on whether the GOP gains signal a shift back to the Republicans in advance of the mid-term Congressional elections in 2010.

So, do these elections tell us anything about 2010 in Maryland? The first thing that will happen as a result of the elections is that I expect that more Republican candidates will file to run for office in 2010. The reason is that candidates on the fence may believe that 2010 will be “a Republican year,” and being on the ballot may be enough to give them the edge to win.

Second, as my colleague Ann Miller concludes, the elections will have an effect on Democrat votes for Obama’s health care reform efforts, particularly for those Democrats representing conservative districts. In Maryland, that means first-term Congressman Frank Kratovil in the First District may conclude that he has to vote with the opposition if he is to maintain his seat in 2010.

Third, the victories will be used to sustain Republican energy through 2010. This will take the form of more rallies, voter registration efforts, and get-out-the-vote campaigns. Getting Republicans to turn out is only one side of the coin. The other side is low turnout by the Democrats and the crossover of Independents, which is what was seen yesterday.

Fourth, look to see campaign donations increase noticeably to the Republican National Committee and state parties particularly in Virginia and New Jersey.

Finally, the elections may provide a blueprint for Republicans to win in other races in Maryland, from Governor down the ballot. Governor Corzine in Democrat New Jersey was criticized for increasing taxes and government regulation to the detriment of jobs and business. You can bet that the Republican who runs against O’Malley in 2010 will follow the same playbook.

Dilip Paliath has a general law practice in Towson.  For more information, see www.paliath.com.