Top 2 - The Morning After

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Some initial thoughts on the Top 2 Primary:

Less than impressive: I read somewhere that Sam Reed was projecting 45-45% turnout.  Well not quite. As of this morning his website is reflecting something under 25%

Most of the races are settling in right about where they were expected to be. In the governor’s race both camps are obviously claiming victory. Again as of this morning, Gregoire has a 4 point lead over Rossi (and a 34,351 vote lead). While the Rossi folks want to spin this as good news I shouldn’t have to remind them of the 500 pound gorilla in the room – Barack Obama. As I suggested  yesterday, Gregoire should be able to count on a major boost come November courtesy of the Obama Nation; far more than she should need to hold on to her office.

The same thing should hold true with the race in the 8^th CD. While Dave Reichert woke up to a tenuous 3 point lead, the expected voter turnout from the presidential race (as well as the anticipated help from the national Democratic Congressional Campaign) could give Darcy Burner enough of a boost to finally turn that moderate to “leaning progressive” district over to the Democrats for the first time.

It looks as if the close race this year might well be the race for Commissioner of Public Lands. Just as I suggested the other day, Eastern Washington Rancher, Peter Goldmark has thus far pushed the incumbent, Doug Sutherland into a virtual tie with Sutherland at 50.33% and Goldmark at 49.67%

While these races have a long way to go to reach their conclusions in November, one thing is certain from the results of this Top 2 Primary; the real losers in this new experiment were the third parties (unless you count “GOP Party”) Without the advantage of being able to finance out of the war chests of a major party, third parties require the additional time of the November ballot to actually be able to reach any significant number of voters. Not one third party candidate survived the Top 2; meaning there will only be Democrats and Republicans on the November ballot. I'm not sure that's what the voters thought they were buying.

 

Peace,

Chad Shue