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Boeing 787's latest delay may boost Airbus A350XWB - the travails of trailblazing
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As the Boeing 787 sits on the ground, the Airbus
A350XWB waits and watches.
Being first isn’t always best. Just ask the Boeing Commercial Airplane Company, builders of some of the best airplanes on the planet.
Boeing’s been beset by a continuing rash of production problems involving its ground-breaking 787 “Dreamliner,” a twin-engine aircraft that promises a nonstop range of up to 8,200 nautical miles and 20 percent fuel savings - when it finally takes wing.
That’s the rub. The 787 is some two years late. Beset by at least five delays, it’s still sitting on the ground waiting for the green light to fly. The immediate beneficiary: Airbus, specifically its A350XWB (Extra Wide Body). “That airplane could be the future,” argues Mike Boyd, president of Colorado-based Boyd Group International, a major aviation consulting firm.
While Boyd believes the Dreamliner will eventually fly, “the real danger is that the two year gain [Boeing] had on Airbus is lost. That’s two years closer to the A350XWB coming out."
Airbus’ advantage, he believes, is that European engineers will learn legions from Boeing’s trailblazing travails. Airbus, no doubt, is taking copious notes on just what caused the 787’s five delays: supply chain problems, parts problems, a strike, and—most recently—what Boeing terms “a need to reinforce an area within the side-of-body section of the aircraft.” Boyd believes Airbus is learning from all of this, and formulating plans to make sure it doesn’t happen to them.
“The 787 delay really does nothing but enhance Airbus’ position on the A350,” agrees Jon Ash, president of Washington, DC-based InterVISTAS, another prominent aviation consulting firm. “Arguably, they’ve got time to deal with [the problems attendant to] new product development.”
Time is on the side of Airbus just now, and the European airframe manufacturer could be getting set to pounce. Here’s the equation: The A350XWB is “due to come out just about the same time a lot of Triple-Sevens (Boeing 777s) are due to come off lease,” says Boyd. That means airlines will be craving newer, more fuel-efficient aircraft – and lots of them.
Boeing projects the total market for new-generation, long-range, fuel-efficient twinjets at some 3,500 aircraft. It expects to sell “more than half” of them. Boeing spokesman Jim Proulx tells Examiner.com that Boeing has already racked up 851 firm orders for the Dreamliner. Airbus indicates it has 483 firm orders for the A350XWB. .jpg)
The fear is carriers could defect from Boeing if 787 deliveries slip much further. Citing the economy, Qantas has cancelled orders for 15 787-9s, and postponed delivery of a like number of somewhat smaller 787-8s.
On the other side of the ledger, Boeing just got a boost from 787 launch customer All Nippon Airways. ANA says it intends to buy 55 Dreamliners, upping its order from 50.
Still, "If the 787 doesn’t come about as advertised we have a world of hurt,” contends Boyd. “Remember, this is a very complex airplane. Everything is new. The supply chain is new. The production track is new.” And the Seven-Eight is composed of 50% composites – that too is new, radically new, for a large commercial airliner. “It really is a leap.”
That leap has led directly to delays. Ash says the most recent hold-up came as no revelation. “Nobody’s surprised,” he asserts. “The people that I talk to weren’t surprised…It was [a lack] of confidence in Boeing’s pronouncements every six or eight months that the problems would be resolved.”
Should airlines defect from Boeing’s trailblazing “Seven-Eight,” and opt to wait for the A350XWB the United States too could be in a ‘world of hurt.’ Making commercial airliners is one of the things this country does really well. It helps keep balance of trade numbers from falling farther off the charts in favor of foreign countries – this as nations the world over flock to the Pacific Northwest to buy Boeing jets.
And this may be the biggest Boeing jet of all time – not in terms of sheer size, but of importance. Get it wrong and this nation’s technological jewel of a company could be badly hurt.
And that is why some industry insiders think being first isn’t always best. The competition waits in the wings while the front-runner incurs the inevitable costs of manufacturing a new flying machine – in this case perhaps the most revolutionary subsonic flying machine ever produced.
No word yet on when the Dreamliner will make its first test flight. In a prepared release Boeing says, “First flight and first delivery will be rescheduled following the final modification [of the side-of-body section] and testing plan. It will be several weeks before the new schedule is available.”
Meanwhile, the A350XWB waits and watches.
Top Photo Credit of 787: Boeing
Bottom Image Credit of A350XWB: Wikipedia
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