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November 7, 5:41 PMWashington Redskins ExaminerMark Newgent

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Falcons quarterback, Matt Ryan
(AP Photo/Bill Feig)

The Redskins take on the 4-3 Falcons in Atlanta. Falcons Examiner, Daniel Cox sat down to answer some of my questions.

Mark Newgent: The Falcons have made a remarkable comeback in just two years from the Michael Vick fiasco and Bobby Petrino bolting for Arkansas. How did the organization turn around so quickly in the face of so much turmoil?

Daniel Cox: The Vick and Petrino business is long in the past now. An 11-5 season will do that for you. As for how they turned it around--owner Arthur Blank made one good choice that begat another and so on. He chose Thomas Dimitroff as the GM and Dimitroff chose Head Coach Mike Smith to lead the team. The two of them chose Matt Ryan as the quarterback. It was all a matter of perfect fits. They moved out some older veterans that may have been trouble (one of which the Redskins are familiar with: DeAngelo Hall), and hit on a number of draft picks that stepped in and helped right away. Some of the others that didn't last year are starting to shine now like safety Thomas DeCoud. I don't want to oversimplify what happened, but essentially Dimitroff and Smith chose to build the team the right way: through the draft with a select few free agents sprinkled in (Michael Turner). The result is a young team of character guys that will play hard for their head coach.

MN: Halfway through the 2009 season Matt Ryan is only two interceptions short of his rookie total, and his QB rating is five points below 2008. Is this a sophomore slump or a function of something else?

DC: I don't want to make excuses for Ryan, but I do believe it's something other than a slump. I could take you through each of his interceptions and tell you which were his fault which were not, but I won't. An example is the second interception he threw against New Orleans. The Saints' middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma just made a fantastic play on the ball to tip it into the hands of the cornerback. Otherwise, it was a good read and a sure touchdown to tight end Tony Gonzalez. Ryan will tell you he's pressing a little and he can't make those mistakes. I think some of his errors are from the struggles in the running game. Ryan's best friend last season was Turner and the successful running game. I think as he continues to mature he'll need that quality running game to help him.

MN: How much does fullback Ovie Mughelli’s absence affect Michael Turner’s performance?

DC: I wrote about that last week and earlier this week. I think it was significant. Mughelli was brought to Atlanta under the Petrino regime, but for a similar reason--to block in the power running game. Mughelli was a fixture in that role in Baltimore before he came to Atlanta, blocking for Jamal Lewis. I'll say this: in Mughelli's absence, Turner had his two worst games, running for 30 and 50 yards. Mughelli returned last week healthy against New Orleans and Turner ran for 151.

MN: The combined record of teams the Falcons defeated is 13-15, while the combined record of the teams they lost to is 17-4. And, you noted the injury bug has bitten them hard this year. Do you think the losses to the “better” teams are a result of the injuries?

DC: Not necessarily. I think in the New England and Dallas losses, they got outplayed. They played the Patriots tough, they just got beat on the road. Bad defense hurt them that day. Against Dallas, they just played awful and Dallas re-emerged as a contender in the NFC. Against New Orleans they were in the game the whole time, even had a shot to win. I think the Falcons are winning the games they're supposed to and playing tough against the tough teams. They'll put a few wins up against tough teams this season as well. I fully expect them to beat the Saints at the Georgia Dome, for example. All those losses came on the road as well.

MN: What are the keys to a Falcons victory?

DC: The Falcons have to run the ball well. If they can get that going, that'll open up the passing game, which is the weaker area of the Redskins defense. Getting pressure on Campbell is still key. Atlanta did a nice job blitzing Drew Brees last week. If they can get a similar amount of pressure on Campbell, I think they'll frustrate him enough to control the Redskins offense.

MN: Who could be an x-factor for the Falcons?

DC: Michael Turner is his ability to run the ball well, absolutely. If he has another 20 carry, 151 yard day, the Falcons will win.

MN: What weaknesses (offense and defense) can the Redskins exploit?

DC: Pass defense. No doubt. The Falcons secondary was hurt by the loss of Brian Williams. They're young back there and they struggle a little. They are improving though. Thomas DeCoud is emerging as a playmaker at free safety and cornerbacks Chris Houston and Brent Grimes have had their moments. Tye Hill, who Atlanta traded a seventh-round pick for in the preseason with St. Louis, played for the first time last week. I think he'll continue to improve. But it's still a questionable part of the defense. If I were game planning against the Falcons, I'd attack them deep and often. On offense, my primary focus would be to shut down Turner and the running game. It's a gamble after that, but at least you make them one-dimensional.

Thanks Daniel.

I hold no hope that the Redskins offensive line will give Jason Campbell time to exploit the Falcons pass defense. They couldn’t do any better against similarly weak defenses. The defense will keep it close for a while, but Atlanta will prevail at home.

My prediction: Falcons 24, Redskins 10.