If the NBA draft were a player, he'd be overrated

June 26, 5:28 PMGolden State Warriors ExaminerMatt Steinmetz

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Baron Davis 

If you want proof that some fans don’t know the game, take the poll ESPN ran before Thursday night’s NBA draft for example.

The station asked this question: What is the best method for building a winning team? The results _ 40% said through the draft; 34% said through trades; and 26% said through free agent signings.

Let me break it to you this way _  if you were thinking that tonight’s draft might yield some kind of difference-making player who will lead your team to a title, or even years of consistent success, you’re going to be extremely disappointed.

The bottom line is it is not easy to pick the right player in the draft, be it among the first 13 picks, the later first round or even in the second round. To do it consistently well, year after year, is not only unrealistic, but  there isn’t enough time to do it successfully.

Those five-year rebuilding plans are a thing of the past.

You could make a case that the only teams since 1990 who "built" through the draft were the San Antonio Spurs and the Chicago Bulls. And the reason? Basically, both teams were lucky enough to strike gold with Tim Duncan and Michael Jordan, respectively.

A quick run-down: Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett weren’t drafted by the Boston Celtics; Tayshaun Prince is the only member of the Pistons’ core who was drafted by Detroit; Miami and the Los Angeles Lakers needed to acquire Shaquille O’Neal before winning a title; the Houston Rockets of the 90s didn’t draft Clyde Drexler, Otis Thorpe or Vernon Maxwell.

If you bring it to the present, consider for a moment teams that perennially try to build through the draft. They don’t tend to do well.

The L.A. Clippers try to build through the draft and seldom sign free agents, and you know what their history looks like. How about the Bulls in recent years? It seems like they’ve been trying to build through the draft since Jordan left. How has their run been?

How about the Warriors? They’ve had a history of not signing impactful free agents (Mark Price and Danny Fortson don’t count) and have been mainstays in the lottery. And yet the Warriors didn’t turn it around until they acquired Baron Davis in a trade.

The Charlotte Bobcats and Atlanta Hawks look to the draft year after year, and neither has had much success in the recent past. And even both of those teams, likely frustrated with little to no progress, went out and got proven help.

The Bobcats acquired Jason Richardson last year; Joe Johnson was a signature free-agent signing for the Hawks a few years back.

So, if your a fan whose GM is consistently relying on the NBA draft to get better, it’s probably not going to happen. And if your GM is selling the building-through-the-draft thing, don't buy it.