Stage 16: With One More Alpine Stage in the Tour de France, It's Time to Go For Broke

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Frank Schleck is ahead of Cadel Evans for now,
but needs a bigger lead before Saturday's time trial.
Photo: Graham Watson

With two of the three stages in the Alps behind them, the yellow jersey contenders at the 2008 Tour de France have just one more day in the high mountains to go for broke or hang on for dear life on the biggest and hardest ascents in the race.

 

For the CSC-Saxo Bank team, the mountains are where they have to gain ground over their rivals. Neither of their top men on the leader board, Frank Schleck currently wearing the yellow jersey or Carlos Sastre, is a good time trial rider. They need to have a lead of two minutes or more over Cadel Evans or Denis Menchov by the end of Stage 17 in order to avoid being overtaken in Saturday’s final individual time trial.

 

Up to this point in the race, CSC-Saxo Bank has done everything they can to put their rivals in difficulty. They have put their team on the front of the race and driven the pace on every major climb in an effort to wear down riders like Evans and Menchov. They have been somewhat successful, gaining about 30 seconds on Evans at the end of Stage 15 and about the same on Menchov today. Yet for all their efforts, Evans is still within 8 seconds of the yellow jersey and Menchov is just over a minute behind.

 

To win the 2008 Tour de France, CSC-Saxo Bank has to go for broke on Stage 17. It’s summit finish on one of the most famous climbs in all of cycling, Alpe d’Huez. This 13-kilometer ascent features 21 numbered switchbacks and will be lined with hundreds of thousands of fans. It’s the last best chance to gain time on Evans and Menchov because it’s the last summit finish of the 2008 Tour de France and it’s a climb that favors the explosive styles of Schleck and Sastre. Frank Schleck knows how to go up this climb. He was the last man to win at the summit when the race finished here in 2006, but that was before anyone considered him a threat to win the yellow jersey. Tomorrow he will not be given the same leeway he was provided two years ago, but if he has the power to attack he has to do it on Alp d’Huez if he’s going to have any chance of keeping the yellow jersey through Saturday’s time trial.

 

Bernhard Kohl is another rider who needs to go for broke on Stage 17. He wasn’t on anybody’s short list of potential Tour de France winners this year, but he’s sitting in second place overall, he’s leading in the King of the Mountains competition, and he still looks very comfortable every time the race heads uphill. He’s exceeding everyone’s expectations – even his own – and he has nothing to lose. If he’s in a position to attack on Alp d’Huez, he’s going to go for it. All he needs is seven seconds over Frank Schleck and to finish one second in front of Cadel Evans and he’ll pull on the yellow jersey. Whether he can keep it to Paris is another story altogether, but even if he can wear it for a day it would be worth the effort.

 

Cadel Evans is still the most likely winner of the 2008 Tour de France. He’s sitting in third place, just eight seconds out of the lead, and he’s far stronger than the two men in front of him when it comes to Saturday’s 53-kilometer time trial. In the best-case scenario, Evans would attack and gain time on Stage 17, and leave the mountains with the yellow jersey and a substantial lead over second place, but that’s not likely to happen against a team like CSC-Saxo Bank and its three strong climbers (Sastre, Frank and Andy Schleck). What’s more likely is that Evans will ride conservatively on Stage 17 and do what he can to keep his rivals from taking much – if any – time from him. He’s in an enviable position in that he doesn’t need to have an exceptionally great day on Stage 17 to remain the most likely winner of the Tour de France. He has to have a good day, but it’s Frank Schleck or Carlos Sastre that needs to have the day of their careers.

 

Denis Menchov is in a slightly less enviable position compared to Evans. He’s a strong time trial rider who can probably take 90 seconds to two minutes out of either Sastre or Schleck in Saturday’s time trial, but he lost 35 seconds to his rivals today and he now sits 1:12 behind the yellow jersey. He’s approaching the outer limit of the time he can expect to retake from Sastre and Schleck in the time trial, and he’s about equal in ability to Evans against the clock. If he just wants to stand on the podium in Paris he might be able to get away with riding conservatively on Stage 17, but if he is going to have any chance of winning the Tour de France this year he needs to attack tomorrow and gain at least 45 seconds. That may not seem like much, but judging from the competition we’ve seen thus far, gaining 45 seconds on any of the yellow jersey contenders is going to be one hell of a task.

 

The odd man out may be Christian Vande Velde. He lost contact with the yellow jersey group about halfway up the last major climb of Stage 16, but limited his losses very well and crossed the summit just about 30 seconds behind the group. While trying to recoup that time on the descent, however, he crashed and finished more than 2:30 behind on the day. He now sits 3:15 behind the yellow jersey. He’s a strong time trial rider and could move up to fourth overall by the end of the race just by riding conservatively tomorrow and having a great time trial on Saturday. But if he has the legs, I think Vande Velde will try to attack on Alp d’Huez. Like Kohl, he has nothing to lose. He’s exceeded everyone’s expectations, and barring disaster he’ll almost certainly end up with a top-10 finish in Paris whether he races aggressively tomorrow or not. Plus, he’s the kind of guy who will look at his current standing in the race as an opportunity rather than as what-could-have-been. The others may give him some room to run now that he’s more than three minutes back, and if they do Christian Vande Velde has the strength to move himself back up into contention for a podium finish in Paris.  

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