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2010: A pitching odyssey
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Jeremy Guthrie: Oct 4, 2009 (Photo: AP).
Obviously, it’s a bit early to predict how the Orioles will fair in 2010, but the team has stated that they will not relegate 2010 to a “rebuilding effort” before Opening Day, as they did in ’09. This means no Alfredo Simon and Adam Eaton, no work-in-progress left fielder, no “we’ll get em next year,” and hopefully no 98 loss season.
Lineup wise, the team was god awful in close and late situations, but only noticeably deficient at 1st and 3rd base. Barring Prince Fielder being plopped into the O’s lineup, which will probably take an act from God (who we must assume can lift at least 275), the corner infield positions may not be much better than last year.
However, the team will still have a strong leadoff hitter (Roberts), solid left/right 2 and 3 guys (Jones, Markakis) and a pair of young players with developing power (Wieters, Reimold). That lineup alone won’t compete in the AL East but it’s not a bad start.
Improvement in 2010 won’t come at the hands of the lineup, though. It will come from the starting pitchers. Whereas ’09 began with a Bad News Bears rotation (minus the youth and loveable qualities of that scrappy club), ’10 will include at least 3 promising young pitchers who were called up mid ’09.
Here’s a potential April rotation along with their 2009 wins/games started statistics:
Brian Matusz – 5/8
Jeremy Guthrie – 10/33
Chris Tillman – 2/12
Brad Bergesen – 7/19
Some Dude ???
As you can see, only Jeremy Guthrie made a whole season of starts. He earned the dubious distinction of the most losses (17) and most home runs given up (35) in the AL. At 31, it’s not a given he’ll rebound but he really can’t get any worse.
Chris Tillman also struggled in his rookie season, but he’s considered a top-tier prospect and he was brought up pretty quickly once the O’s had already thrown in the towel. He’s the youngest of the Orioles prospects (just 21 in 2009) and could feasibly start the season in AAA. Regardless, he’s had a taste of the bigs and should come back better at some point in ’10.
Matusz and Bergesen both impressed as rookies. At 23 and 25, they, too, should take a step forward as they adjust to major league hitting.
There are plenty of candidates for the 5th spot in the rotation, including a veteran free agent, another young guy like David Hernandez or Jake Arrietta, or a retread like Koji Uehara or Mark Hendrickson.
Either way, the fact that it’s October and the Orioles have more than 1 sure thing for the rotation already puts them in a better position than last year, when they started spring training with 4 open spots and 37 pitchers.
I’ll say that the increased pitching stability alone should be good for another 12-14 wins next year, regardless of what happens elsewhere. That still leaves the O’s as an under 80 win team, which is an improvement, but not the kind of turnaround that will make believers of the cynics just yet.
Then again, I once thought Ralph Nader was a shoe-in for the Presidency, so take these projections with a grain of salt.
