Cribbing the California governor’s race: battle of the bases

March 1, 1:52 PMSF Politics ExaminerArthur Bruzzone

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The strategies of the three leading contenders are emerging, ignore the general election, cover their negatives, churn their base.  But in the end it’s a battle of their bases, which is foremost.

Attorney General Jerry Brown’s base:  Older Democrats, the unions, his father’s (the former governor) supporters. Negatives: Older generation, establishment, dwelling on his past. Assets:  I appeared with him on Fox’s KTVU to comment on a past State of the Union address; he has the most disciplined mind and media performance I’ve encountered, maybe too disciplined (Jesuit training).

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom’s base:  The Obama generation, progressives, gay/lesbian communities, Bay Area.  Negatives:  Tied to too many SF hot button issues, has antagonized Democrat establishment, past indiscretions, lack of focus.  Where Jerry Brown thinks in outlines, Newsom's head is filled with hundreds of ideas.  Assets:  “Wired” to the contemporary, new age perspective, which attracts under 40 voters.

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa’s base:  Party establishment, Southern California voter base, Latino vote.  Negatives: Overly ambitious LA goals, past indiscretions, predictable responses, doesn’t seem as hungry for the governership as his opponents.  Assets:  Natural power image, as in former Speaker of the Assembly, Mayor of the nation’s largest city. Several lucrative voter bases.

It may take only 25% of the primary vote to win the primary.  It’s a matter of patching together that low number. 

Apparent Bottomline:  Brown has to keep his establishment base in tack, must try to appear contemporary (green, social issues).  Newsom laps at his green base, has a handle on the youth vote (but who are lazy voters), eats away at Villaraigosa’s SoCal progressive base.  The LA Mayor has to juggle his three lucrative bases, solidify and motivate Hispanic voters, convince older Dems he’s more the party’s standard bearer.

Real Bottomline: who can handle the State’s grotesque fiscal problems.  Who can show he’s a combo of sheriff, CEO, the Enforcer, Negotiator, and Deal maker. 

Brown has a natural abrasive street fighting style. Long history of public office.  Hey! He’s been the governor, so has his father.  Essentially missed the big budget deficits in Oakland when he was mayor.  Untested, here.

Villaraigrosa runs a World City, LA. Has taken on his Board of Education, was Assembly Speaker, knows the how to street fight, literally.  Has a $7 billion budget with a possible $1 billion deficit. 

Newsom has made San Francisco a laboratory for several programs that have been adopted by the State and the new President (alternative energy, health care, global warming).  But he has a $500 million dollar budget deficit for his $6 billion budget (with one sixth LA’s population).

Stay tuned...