The same-sex marriage coalition isn't waiting for November to challenge the ballot measure ("only a marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized.")  On June 20, 2008 advocates for same-sex marriages asked the California Supreme Court to bounce the initiative off the November ballot.

It's clearly a change in course.  Both Equality for All and Equality California push political action to oppose the measure.  Their web sites provide online help in to organize, volunteer, dates for Pride signups, generic emails ready to be sent, and endorsement forms.  Only Equality California references the legal challenge submitted June20, 2008.

The tactic has been used before in Massachusetts.  Last year, a voter initiative to amend the state's constitution was beaten back by the same argument.  Namely, that a constitutional amendment of such significance requires concurrence of the state legislature. It lost by five votes. The voters never had a chance to vote.

Or could it be the coalition's internal polls show the measure headed to victory?
 
*  A much publicized June 2008 Field Poll showed the California measure losing, with 51% opposing it (plus or minus 4 percentage points.)  Keep in mind the Field poll contacted registered, not likely registered voters.  Always a problem in polling results.  In the Field poll, voters were first asked ask a simple "yes" or "no" question about the ban measure. But when offered three possibilities.. marriage, civil unions, or neither... support for same sex marriage fell to 45%.  Worse yet, almost a third of those polled said they neither support marriage nor civil unions. 

*  But there's the LA Times poll conducted at the same time.  Here the  results flip flop -- 54% said they would support the measure banning same sex marriages.  More problematic, only 41% support the court ruling that currently allows same sex marriages. 

*  Still another poll recently conducted for CBS 5 by Survey USA of 500 adults found 52 percent would support the ban if it's on the ballot, while only 36 percent would oppose it. All three polls were conducted after the court ruling.

*  It gets worse. In 2000, in the weeks leading up to passage of Proposition 22 that opposed same sex marriages, polls show the measure winning by a slim margin - again, with 51% support.  But when the votes were counted, Prop 22 won 61-39%.  What this says is that polled voters are reluctant to answer sensitive questions honestly. 

Taken together - it's clear the  same sex coalition concluded that letting the voters decide the issue was too risky.

Not a wise decision in the current political environment. Here's the stark reality: Forty-eight states have laws, constitutional amendments or court rulings that ban gay marriage. Twenty-seven states have constitutional amendments that ban same sex marriages. 

Clearly a challenge was planned in the event and after voters approved the ban in November the tactic used in 1994 with Proposition 187, which denied benefits to illegal immigrants.  Opponents got the measure tossed after the vote.  By denying the voters a chance to voice their opinion same sex advocates, risk resentment and lack of legitimacy.

A highly charged issue like same sex marriage, can't be won in the courts, not if full public acceptance is the goal.  That lesson should have been learned in 2004, when San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom superceded the law and unilaterally ordained same sex marriages.  His actions led to 48 states taking action to oppose same sex marriages in one form or another.  Worse, it probably cost the Democrats their $600 million campaign for the White House. 

We're in an election year again...