Series preview: Royals/White Sox

April 5, 7:08 PMChicago White Sox ExaminerJJ Stankevitz

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Zack Greinke struggled at U.S. Cellular Field in 2008.

Dates: April 7 (1:05), April 8 (7:11), April 9 (1:05)

Game 1: Mark Buehrle vs. Gil Meche

Meche vs. Chicago in 2008: 2 starts, 1-1 record, 4.50 ERA, 12.0 IP, 5 BB/11 K, 6 R (all earned), 10 hits, 0 HR

Buehrle vs. Kansas City in 2008: 5 starts, 3-2 record, 31.2 IP, 3 BB/19 K, 17 R (14 earned), 35 hits, 4 HR

Game 2: Gavin Floyd vs. Zack Greinke

Grienke vs. Chicago in 2008:  4 starts, 1-2 record, 22.1 IP, 6 BB/19 K, 18 R (all earned), 32 hits, 6 HR

Floyd vs. Kansas City in 2008: 3 starts, 1-2 record, 19.1 IP, 3 BB/14 K, 12 R (8 earned), 18 hits, 5 HR

Game 3: John Danks vs. Kyle Davies

Davies vs. Chicago in 2008: 4 starts, 2-1 record, 23.0 IP, 6 BB/14 K, 11 R (all earned), 26 hits, 4 HR

Danks vs. Kansas City in 2008: 3 starts, 1-0 record, 16.2 IP, 5 BB/7 K, 8 R (all earned), 19 hits, 2 HR

Outlook

A couple of things should be noted when looking at these basic numbers. First, just from looking at Kansas City's walk numbers—especially against Floyd, who had a 3.05 BB/9 in 2008—it's no surprise that this team had a .320 OPB last year. Coco Crisp had a .344 OPB in 2008 and should help at the top of the lineup along with David DeJesus, but the meat of this still will struggle if Alex Gordon and Billy Butler don't start to realize their power potential. If the Royals have to rely on Jose Guillen (.300 OPB in 2008) and Mike Jacobs (.299 OPB in 2008) to drive in runs, it could be a long season in Kansas City.

That's not to say Guillen and Jacobs aren't good run produces—Guillen had 97 and Jacobs had 93 RBI in 2008—but neither of them seem like the answer Kansas City needs to their offensive issues. Both CHONE andZiPS project Guillen and Jacobs to have an OPS below .800, which is not good for players who are going to expected to carry a lot of offensive weight in 2009.

Turning to pitching, if Greinke's home/road splits against the White Sox hold up from 2008, the Sox should have no problem scoring off the 25-year-old right-hander. In two starts against the White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field, Grienke threw 6.0 and 3.0 innings, allowing eight and seven earned runs in those starts, respectively. His K/BB ratio in those nine innings in Chicago was 1:1. Conversely,Greinke made two starts against the White Sox in Kansas City and was dominant in those performances. He allowed just three earned runs in a combined 13.1 innings while striking out 14 with only one walk.

Greinke had a fine year in 2008, but his two worst starts of the year both came at U.S. Cellular Field. It'll be interesting to see if he came come out and put those poor outings of last year behind him with his start Wednesday evening.

Davies was one of those pitchers who gave the White Sox fits in 2008. It wasn't spectacular, Johan Santana-type fits, but he was effective despite not looking overly impressive every time he threw against the WhiteSox last year. He may not be flashy, but he got pretty solid results as a back-of-the-rotation starter for Kansas City last year. He very well could sustain those numbers this year, as if you look at his FIP (4.22, with an ERA of 4.06) and his BABIP (.309), it would indicate that Davies really wasn't all that lucky last year—he was just a solid starter for the Royals.

Meche had another solid season for Kansas City last year, and while he is not the ace of the staff (Greinke is), he's a serviceable pitcher who can eat a lot of innings. Despite having a contract that everybody assumed was way over market value for him,Meche has actually been a major bargain for the Royals according to FanGraphs' win values, which has Meche valued at $21.6 million in 2008 (he made $11.4 mm). While Meche likely won't put up spectaular statistics, he certainly has at least lived up to his contract through two years in Kansas City. 

If the Royals' starting pitchers are able to throw seven innings with a lead, the White Sox are going to have a tough time coming back against Juan Cruz and Joakim Soria. Despite dealing away solid middle relievers Ramon Ramirez and Leo Nunez in the offseason, the Royals did well for themselves by bringing in Cruz at a bargain price. With Cruz working the eighth and Soria—who very well could be the best closer in baseball—finishing games in the ninth, the Royals will be tough to beat if they have a lead after seven innings.

But watch out for the weather

Opening Day could come a day late for the White Sox if the current weather forecast holds up. At 1:00 pm Monday, there will be a 50 percent chance of snow with 20 mile-per-hour winds blowing from the north, which would be blowing from left to right field at U.S. Cellular Field. Barring some miracle (like Chicago being picked up and transplanted to Florida overnight), the weather is going to be miserable Monday afternoon on the South Side. With an off day Tuesday, there seems to be a pretty good chance that Monday's opener will be pushed back a day to slightly better (43! A warm front!) conditions.

Updated, 7:06: As most of you probably know by now, opening day for the White Sox will be Tuesday at 1:05.