2009 predictions: no, I do not have the White Sox making the playoffs

April 5, 9:31 PMChicago White Sox ExaminerJJ Stankevitz

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I have John Danks and the Sox finishing third in the AL Central.

Since everybody has their two cents out there on what they think will happen in the 2009 season, I might as well throw my hat into the ring with some predictions for the upcoming year.

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox: They played the free-agent market perfectly in the offseason, bringing in a couple of low-risk, high-reward guys like John Smoltz, Brad Penny, and Takashi Saito. If none of those players end up working out for Boston, they have the payroll flexibility to make a midseason trade for a big-time player (Jake Peavy, Matt Holliday).

2. Tampa Bay Rays: Getting David Price up to the majors in May will be a big boost to the Rays' rotation, but it won't be enough to beat out the Red Sox this year. If Evan Longoria can avoid a sophomore slump and BJ Upton shows off the power he flexed in the playoffs last year, this is a Rays team that should still make the playoffs as the AL wild card.

3. New York Yankees: I'm honestly not sold that CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett are going to be the answer for the Yankees this year. Sabathia's great performance in Milwaukee masked the fact that he struggled a bit with the Indians before moving to the NL in 2008, and it'll be interesting to see how he's received if he gets off to a similarly slow start for the first few months. Burnett did stay injury-free in 2008, but has never had back-to-back seasons in which he's thrown at least 200 innings. It'll be close, but the Rays ultimately should beat out the high-priced Yankees for the wild card.

4. Toronto Blue Jays: The division really falls off after Boston, Tampa Bay, and New York. Toronto has finished over .500 in each of the last three seasons, but with a lot of questions in their rotation, the Blue Jays won't be able to make it four in a row. Travis Snider is an intriguing prospect who could be in the running for the AL rookie of the year, but there won't be a whole lot of other reasons to watch the Blue Jays unless sadistic Maple Leafs fans want to find another team to dislike in Toronto.

5. Baltimore Orioles: If you thought the Blue Jays had questions in their rotation, the Orioles have more. It'll be interesting to see how Adam Jones, Felix Pie, and Matt Wieters (when he's called up) develop, but Baltimore is still a long way away from being mentioned in the same breath as the class of the AL East. Wieters very well could go the same route as Longoria, who won the AL rookie of the year after being called up in May of 2008. 

AL Central

1. Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer's out for an undetermined amount of time. Scott Baker is opening the season on the DL. And Pat Neshek still won't be back. And you know what? Thats not stopping me from taking the Twins this year. Their defense will once again be excellent—especially in the outfield—and when Baker returns, he and Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, and Nick Blackburn should be solid with Joe Nathan shutting down games in the ninth. By no means will the Twins run away with the AL Central, but in the end, they'll win the division with good pitching and good defense.

2. Cleveland Indians: I really wanted to take the Indians. I really did. Then I saw the back of their starting rotation: Carl Pavano, Scott Lewis, and Anthony Reyes. Lewis has a nice minor league track record and Reyes threw the ball well in a short stint with Cleveland last year, but over the course of a full season, I'm sticking with Minnesota's rotation over Cleveland's. The offense in Cleveland should be better with Shin-Soo Choo in the lineup for a full season, but in the end, they just barely finish behind Minneosta.

3. Chicago White Sox: Too many questions to pick them to win the division. If Gavin Floyd can avoid a regression and Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon can stay effective and healthy through 2009, then the Sox will contend for the AL Central. The bullpen should be good enough to compete for another year and I'm liking the lineup (outside of centerfield) more and more by the day, but defense could be a big issue for this team. With an uncertain pitching staff, that's the last thing the White Sox will need.

4. Kansas City Royals: The Royals are becoming a trendy pick, but a lot will have to go right for Kansas City to contend for the division. Maybe Alex Gordon and Billy Butler will find their power strokes, but even if they do...have you seen the back of the Royals' rotation? Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez are not the kind of pitchers that division-winning teams have in their rotation. I'd have to assume neither of them will be in the rotation come May or June, but this team still will have serious questions with the team OBP and in the back of the rotation.

5. Detroit Tigers: The theme of these team notes so far has been pitching, and Detroit doesn't have a whole lot of it. Couple that with an aging offense that is extremely weak in the 7-8-9 spots and this is a Detroit team that really could use a major bailout (and trust me, that joke will be used waaaaay too much this year). The Tigers broke camp with 20-year-old Rick Porcello in their rotation, and it'll be interesting to see how he handles making the jump from single-A to the majors. He's got the stuff to do it, but remember—he's only two years removed from pitching in high school. That's not an easy transition.

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels: It'll be close between the Angels and the A's, but I'm sticking with the status quo for one more year. The Angels will have some early-season questions in their rotation with John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Kelvim Escobar not likely rejoining the rotation until at least late April, but if the Angels can get those three pitchers back and healthy for a good amount of time this year, they'll be able to eek out a division win with a solid offense and a good bullpen.

2. Oakland Athletics: A lot of people are seeing all the Angels' rotation issues and jumping on the A's bandwagon—and don't be surprised if the A's jump out to an early lead in the division. However, their rotation is still very young, and that youth could ultimately be their undoing in August and September. The A's will have a very good offense and an excellent defense, but they'll fall just short of the Angels this year.

3. Texas Rangers: As per usual, the Rangers will have offensive success but struggle with pitching that will be exacerbated by patchy defense. Josh Hamilton, Chris Davis, and Ian Kinsler will get theirs, and Elvis Andrus, Nelson Cruz, and Taylor Teagarden are a few young players worth watching. A rotation of Kevin Millwood/Vicente Padilla/Kris Benson/Brandon McCarthy/Matt Harrison is certainly not going to cure the Rangers' recent pitching woes, and the bullpen is generally a ragtag group of mediocrity. Texas has a lot of young talent on the way, though, but it won't make an impact for a year or two.

4. Seattle Mariners: They're probably win about 73ish games and battle with Texas for the cellar. Felix Hernandez is always fun to watch and Russell Branyan is worth a couple of 500-foot home runs a year, but this doesn't seem like it'll be all that enjoyable of a team to watch unless Carlos Silva finds his way out of the rotation. I can only hope Ken Griffey Jr. hits a good amount of home runs, though, so awesome responses like this can be common from Mariners fans.

NL East

1. Atlanta Braves: I love what the Braves had done with their rotation by bringing in Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, and Kenshin Kawakami to join Jair Jurrjens, giving the Braves the best starting rotation in the division. The Braves offense should be solid (and no, I'm not just saying that because they've drilled four home runs so far on opening night), and ultimately, I like them to win one of the most competitive divisions in baseball.

2. Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies' don't have the starting rotation of the Braves, but they do have a good, solid group of starters coming back. Adding Raul Ibanez may not have been the best decision the team could make, as he really hurts their defense and the lineup already had enough left-handed power, but he's certainly not gong to cost the Phillies a playoff spot as the NL wild card.

3. New York Mets: Getting Frankie Rodriguez and JJ Putz immediately gives the Mets a lockdown back of the bullpen—something they seriously could have used in 2007 and 2008. They'll have a good offense and a decent starting rotation, but not good enough to beat out the Braves of Phillies.

4. Florida Marlins: Another "dark horse" team with a solid rotation, an underrated closer, and a solid offense. The Marlins may ultimately be a year away from winning the division, but they very well could give the Braves, Phillies, and Mets a run for their money in 2009.

5. Washington Nationals: The most interesting storyline for the Nats in 2009 will be how much money they're willing to throw at Stephen Strasburg, who is regarded as the best prospect of at least the last decade. The Nationals have the No. 1 overall pick and can't afford another PR hit after failing to sign University of Missouri right-hander Aaron Crow (who went No. 9 overall to Washington in 2008), so they'll have to pay Strasburg. Word is Scott Boras is looking for six years, $50 million for the San Diego State phenom out of college, using Daisuke Matsuzaka's contract as a benchmark. While he won't get that, it'll take a significant amount of money for the Nationals to ink Strasburg, assuming they draft him.

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs: They're still the class of the division, with the best offense, bullpen, and starting rotation. The Cardinals could give them a challenge, but the Cubs will have the depth and talent to win the division for the third straight year.

2. St. Louis Cardinals: After picking the Cards to finish fifth in 2008, I'm not going to doubt them again. While I don't see Ryan Ludwick or Todd Wellemeyer repeating their 2008 performances, if the Cardinals can get good performances out of rookies Colby Rasmus and Jason Motte, they could push the Cubs for the division title.

3. Cincinnati Reds: When searching for the year's Tampa Bay Rays, the Reds frequently came up. Cincinnati does have a decent starting rotation and some exciting young talent—namely, Jay Bruce and Joey Votto—but they're still a year or two from really contending for the division. The Reds shouldn't be anything for the Cubs to worry about just yet.

4. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers don't have a whole lot of pitching to speak of, but an offense with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder in the middle will keep Milwaukee out of the NL Central cellar. I have to wonder how long it'll take for Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar to be called up and lay the foundation for what could be one of the better left sides of the infield in baseball, though.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Me picking the Pirates to finish ahead of the Astros is more an indictment of Houston than it is a compliment of Pittsburgh. I like Ryan Doumit, Nate McLouth, Freddy Sanchez, Paul Maholm, and Matt Capps, but the Pirates still have a long way to go before they can think about contending.

6. Houston Astros: A suspect starting rotation, shaky bullpen depth, and an aging offense. That sounds like a recipe for disaster in Houston to me. Houston doesn't have much of a farm system to speak of, so it might actually get worse for the Astros before things start getting better.

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: With Manny Ramirez and Orlando Hudson in the fold, they're the clear favorites to win the division. They have a great mix of youth and veterans, and getting Ramirez back will make their lineup that much better. 21-year-old phenom Clayton Kershaw could be a really fun pitcher to watch in 2009.

2. San Francisco Giants: On paper, this team doesn't have much of an offense. There's no real run producer in the lineup, and it'll take a quick emergence from a guy like Pablo Sandoval for this team to score runs with consistency. It's a shame, too, because their rotation of Tim Lincecum/Matt Cain/Randy Johnson/Jonathan Sanchez/Barry Zito would be really tough to beat with a good offense behind it.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks: The D-Backs still have a ton of youth, but whether that youth develops remains to be seen. Former Sox farmhand Chris Young still has major contact problems and Conor Jackson has yet to develop good power for a corner player, but players like Stephen Drew has started to show off his potential and Justin Upton still has a ton of room to grow. They have a deep bullpen and a solid starting rotation—Max Scherzer (another Mizzou baseball alum) could be primed for a breakout year in the rotation if he can stay off the disabled list. I'm just not sold enough on Arizona's offense to put them any higher than third, but if things start falling the right way at the plate, the D-Backs could contend for the division.

4. Colorado Rockies: Losing Jeff Francis for the year really will stretch the rotation and the bullpen doesn't have a ton of depth. This team will still score a decent amount of runs, but it won't be enough to mask their obvious pitching problems.

5. San Diego Padres: The Padres are probably the worst team in baseball, and they'll be even worse if they deal away Jake Peavy during the regular season to clear payroll and replenish the farm system. It's tough to see any scenario in which San Diego contends for the playoffs.

Playoffs

ALDS: Red Sox over Angels

ALDS: Rays over Twins

NLDS: Dodgers over Braves

NLDS: Cubs over Philles

ALCS: Red Sox over Rays

NLCS: Dodgers over Cubs

World Series: Red Sox over Dodgers

Awards

AL MVP: BJ Upton, Tampa Bay Rays. Maybe I'm a bit too confident that Upton finds his power stroke again, but if he hits 30 home runs and steals 40 bases all with stellar defense, he'd be my pick to win the MVP.

AL Cy Young: Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox. Lester got a ton of ground balls last year, and if he can continue to keep the ball down and avoid walking a lot of batters, he should be the guy to take on the Cy Young.

AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles. It'll be close between Wieters and David Price, but Wieters will ultimately take home the award with an Evan Longoria-type season.

AL Manager of the year: Bob Geren, Oakland A's. If Geren leads the A's into contention in the AL West, he'll probably deserve the award.

NL MVP: Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers. I don't see why Ramirez has to pull the shenanigans he did with Boston in '08 with the Dodgers in '09. If the Dodgers win the NL West, it likely will be on the back of Ramirez.

NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, New York Mets. He's ran into some elbow problems in spring, but they didn't appear to be anything serious. I see no reason why Santana can't be a dominant starter for the sixth year in a row.

NL Rookie of the Year: Jordan Schafer, Atlanta Braves. For the record, I was going to take Schafer before he went 2/3 with a home run in his first MLB at-bat Sunday night.

NL Manager of the Year: Bobby Cox, Atlanta Braves. If the Braves live up to my predictions, Cox will get the Braves back into the playoffs with a crown in one of baseball's toughest divisions.