2009 White Sox player review: Alex Rios

November 5, 2:20 PMChicago White Sox ExaminerJJ Stankevitz

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Alex Rios looked lost at the plate after coming to the Sox. (AP photo)

When the White Sox acquired Alex Rios from the Blue Jays August 11, it looked like the Sox had just picked up a plus defensive center fielder who was having a down year offensively due to some bad luck. On top of that, the White Sox didn't even have to give up a single player to get Rios—just pay the rest of his contract.

Luckily, the Rios acquisition was made with the future in mind. Rios played well below expectations in his two months with the White Sox, both offensively and defensively—certainly not the solid, toolsy player the Sox thought they were getting.

Key stats
GP: 41
PA: 154
AB: 146
Batting average: .199
OBP: .229
Slugging: .301
OPS: .530
OPS+: 35
wOBA: .306
2B: 6
3B: 0
HR: 3
BB/SO: 6/29 (0.21)
RBI: 9
SB/CS: 5/2
BABIP: .228
UZR (CF): -1.6
UZR (RF): -1.4
WAR: -1.0

Okay, so Rios wasn't good with the White Sox. In fact, for most of his time with the Sox, his OPS was bested by Brent Lillibridge. On top of that, UZR didn't rate his defense very well. It all added up to Rios amassing a -1.0 WAR, essentially the inverse of what Rios had in 108 games with the Blue Jays (0.9 WAR).

Rios' swing never looked good at any point with the White Sox, which was a big reason why he didn't hit well. I had this to say about Rios' swing back in September:

Rios' BABIP has dropped off from the .290s when he was acquired to .274, but I wouldn't necessarily attribute that to bad luck. His line drive rate has plummeted to 16.8 percent, about four percent lower than his 2006-2008 rates. And, again, that just tells us something that everybody who's watched Rios has realized: he's not hitting the ball hard.

So the reason why he hasn't hit the ball hard? There's something wrong with his swing. I don't think pitchers have magically figured out how to pitch Rios this year—his percentage of pitches faced is similar to those of 2006-08—instead, that hole in his swing has ruined his ability to hit fastballs and has aggravated his struggles against sliders and cutters.

What I failed to mention was that Rios' .290 BABIP at the time was a departure from his career average of .323. So Rios was already having some bad luck when he came to the White Sox, and for whatever reason, that luck got worse.

It's too simple to say Rios was unlucky, but then again, BABIP almost always normalizes to one's career average after an outlier year (see: Swisher, Nick). For RIos' BABIP to normalize to that .323 career average, he's going to have to find a stance and a swing that's comfortable for him.

Hopefully Greg Walker can find a way to fix it. Even if he or Rios can't, I'd expect Rios' BABIP to go up in 2010—but perhaps not to the level where he's anything more than a replacement-level offensive player.

All these concerns, though, are based on one year. Prior to 2009, Rios' WAR values were 5.5, 4.6, and 3.3 in 2008, 2007, and 2006. While I don't think we should expect Rios to return to that five-win value of '08, I'm confident Rios will return to some multi-win value in 2010.

One year is not sufficient reason to think a player will deviate from his career track record. No matter how bad he looked in 2009, until proven otherwise, last season was an aberration and not a trend.

Prior to 2009, Rios was a great defensive center fielder and a solid offensive player. Because UZR can fluctuate year-to-year, it should be taken in more of a big-picture context when evaluating defense. Just because Rios had a below-average UZR in 2009 doesn't mean he's going to have a below-average UZR in 2010.

He's been a plus defensive outfielder most of his career, and again, until proven otherwise, that's what his track record says he'll be in 2010.

There are going to be a lot of Rios doubters who will have none of this cautious optimism I'm expressing in this review. They're entitled to their opinions and their doubts, but I'm more of a big picture guy.

One bad year with two really bad months really doesn't tell me a whole lot about a player. In the case of Rios, let's hope that's the case.

And that's the last player review of the year. Thanks to everybody for keeping up with these, and as always, thanks to Sox Machine and South Side Sox for throwing me some links in the last month.

• Also, the Angels re-signed Bobby Abreu to a two-year, $19 million deal with a $9 million vesting option.Given that the Sox acquired Mark Teahen today, though, Abreu's return to the Angels doesn't have that much significance to the Sox.