2009 White Sox player review: Jermaine Dye

November 2, 12:20 PMChicago White Sox ExaminerJJ Stankevitz

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Jermaine Dye once again struggled defensively. (AP photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

At the All-Star break, it looked like the White Sox would have a tough decision on their hands regarding Jermaine Dye and his $12 million mutual option after the season came to an end.

Looking back, that seems like a long, long time ago.

On July 12, Dye was hitting .302/.375/.567 with 20 home runs. On October 4, Dye went 0-2 with a strikeout to finish the year hitting .250/.340/.453 with 27 home runs.

And now, the decision regarding Dye's mutual option seems pretty clear-cut. It'll be a pretty big surprise if the White Sox choose to pick it up and keep Dye around for $12 million in 2010 given how much he struggled at the plate in the second half of 2009.

Key stats
GP: 141
PA: 574
AB: 503
Batting average: .250
OBP: .340
Slugging: .453
OPS:.793
OPS+: 102
2B: 19
3B: 1
HR: 27
BB/SO: 0.59
RBI: 81
BABIP: .269
UZR: -18.7
WAR: -0.1

Defense has been the Achilles' heel for Dye in the last four years, and it's telling when his -18.7 UZR was actually his best since 2005. But in 2006 and 2008, Dye was able to make up for his poor defense with excellent offense.

When Dye slumps offensively, though, he becomes a below-replacement player. In 2007, Dye's poor defense coupled with slightly above-average offense led to a -0.7 WAR. This year wasn't as cruel to Dye in terms of WAR, but his poor defense and slumping second-half offense led to a -0.1 WAR.

Dye's slump certainly came out of nowhere. Yes, Dye is 35, but that's not a sufficient reason to expect his post All-Star break line of .179/.293/.297 with just seven home runs and four doubles.

If we're looking at statistical reasons for Dye's slump, his BABIP plummeted as he struggled to hit line drives. His full-season .269 BABIP is unsustainable and his 16.9 line drive percentage was the lowest of his career since 2003. On top of that, Dye didn't hit fastballs nearly as well as he has in the past—and his ability to hit fastballs has been a common thread linking his best offensive seasons with the White Sox.

But there had to be some psychological reasons behind Dye's slump. These can't be quantified, so the following explanation is just a theory.

Dye went into a slump after the All-Star break, hitting .167/.239/.321 with four home runs and one double in 92 plate appearances from July 17 to August 9. That could be explained as a normal statistical valley—albeit a pretty serious one—that all players go through during the course of a 162-game season.

On August 10, the White Sox acquired Alex Rios via waivers from the Blue Jays. That move put a serious dent in Dye's chances of returning regardless of how well he played down the stretch.

If I had to guess, though, I would say Dye put added pressure himself to show the White Sox he still could hit well after Rios came over in the hopes of swaying the front office into retaining him for 2010. To put it bluntly, Dye got in his own head after August 10.

Dye never was able to get the regression to the mean most players see after a slump. From August 10 through the end of the season, Dye hit .188/.325/.281 with three home runs and three doubles in 154 plate appearances.

A low BABIP certainly had something to do with that line. But from watching Dye over that time period, it looked like he was pressing at the plate—trying to do too much. Dye's body language almost seemed to give off a "helpless" vibe, like he knew he was only digging himself a bigger hole but couldn't do anything about it.

I'm not saying the acquisition of Rios caused Dye to keep slumping. But if you put a gun to my head and asked me, I'd probably say it at least contributed to Dye's second-half slide.

And that second-half slide is why the White Sox won't pick up their side of Dye's mutual option. I'm not sure they should have picked up the option anyway—FanGraphs hasn't rated Dye as being worth $12 million for as far as their value database goes back.

However, I'm not completely against Dye returning as a designated hitter in 2010. His value is extremely low right now, and if the Sox could swing a one-year, $5 million deal for Dye to DH, it wouldn't be all bad (that would be a net of $7 million paid to Dye, as the Sox would have to pay him a $2 million buyout to decline his mutual option).

While he wouldn't give the White Sox a left-handed outfielder/DH that the team likely will try to acquire in the offseason, he would come at an affordable price—which, at this point, may be more important than what side of the plate he bats.

Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon will almost certainly be out of the White Sox' price range, so picking up a Dye or a Jim Thome on the cheap could be decent enough options for the team.

If Dye did play his final game with the White Sox in 2009, though, I don't think there will be many Sox fans who look back on his tenure with the team as being bad. Yeah, he struggled in 2007 and 2009 and didn't necessarily earn his contract in the last three years, but as a World Series hero in 2005 and near-MVP in 2006, it's tough to feel bad about Dye's five years with the White Sox.

Links:

• Jim talks Greg Walker and has a quick note (that I completely agree with) on development around U.S. Cellular Field.
• Larry at SouthSideSox passes along a note on Mark Buehrle being named the best fielding pitcher in baseball by Bill James.
• The guys from Oral Sox have their second offseason video up. "Under the circumstances!" Good work as usual from Adam and Jeff.
• Check out my photo galleries from Missouri's Black & Gold basketball game and 41-7 loss to Texas.