2009 White Sox player review: Matt Thornton

October 15, 8:09 AMChicago White Sox ExaminerJJ Stankevitz

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Matt Thornton may be called on to close for the 2010 Sox. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

When talking about the best trades of the Kenny Williams era, the 2006 Joe Borchard-for-Matt Thornton trade has to be near the top of the list. In that trade, the Sox turned a first-round bust into a dominant left-handed reliever.

Thornton is under control through 2011 (the Sox hold a $3 million club option for 2011) and could find himself closing games for the Sox before his time on the South Side is up. There's some speculation floating around that Bobby Jenks will be traded in the offseason, and if that speculation turns into reality you can bet it'll be Thornton who will be closing for the Sox next year.

If the Sox don't trade Jenks, though, then they'll be able to keep an incredibly valuable piece of their bullpen in his same role through at least 2010.

Key stats
G: 70
IP: 72.1
W: 6
L: 3
ERA: 2.74
ERA+: 171
FIP: 2.46
BB: 20
BB/9: 2.49
SO: 87
K/9: 10.82
K/BB: 4.35
HR/9: 0.62
WHIP: 1.08
OPS: .599
GB/FB: 1.28
BABIP: .312
WAR: 2.5

Here are some of Thornton's league ranks among relievers: 9th in strikeouts, 8th in K/BB, 6th in FIP, and second in WAR. The only relief pitcher with a higher WAR is Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton, so therefore, the argument can be made that Matt Thornton is the best setup man in baseball.

At the least, he's the best left-handed setup man in baseball. His average fastball velocity of 95.7 mph is the highest of any qualified left-handed pitcher (starter or reliever), and his easy, smooth delivery makes that a deceptive mid-to-upper 90's heater.

Both pitches of Thornton's classic power-arm combo—fastball/slider—rate as above average by FanGraphs. While Thornton's slider rates higher than his fastball, I don't think that necessarily means Thornton should throw more sliders. In fact, as Thornton has had more success in the majors, he's thrown fewer sliders.

Eighty-nine percent of the pitches Thornton threw in 2009 were fastballs, and it should come as no surprise that Thornton's 2009 numbers were the best of his career.

What we saw in '09 was far more of a willingness to use Thornton against both lefties and righties—which, given Ozzie Guillen's propensity to play the percentages, shows just how dominant Thornton was. His LH/RH splits are essentially equal—a .596 OPS against lefties, .601 against righties.

By the way, one thing that jumped out at me when looking at Thornton's splits was his OPS against with an 0-2 count. Hitters might have had a better chance to be struck by lightning than get on base against Thornton after falling behind 0-2, as opposing batters had just a .103 OBP after 0-2. Their OPS of .236 after 0-2 would make Alex Rios look like Willie Mays.

Okay, so we know Thornton can put away batters with an 0-2 count. Any pitcher with as dominant of a fastball as Thornton should be able to do that. But can Thornton close? That begs this question: How did Thornton handle high-pressure situations in 2009?

Very well, actually. In 120 high-leverage situations, Thornton had a K/BB of 5.86 and OPS against of .550—which actually may have been aided by the high .362 BABIP hitters had in those spots.

In 81 medium-leverage situations, Thornton had a K/BB of 3.67 and a .522 OPS against with a .200 BABIP. And in 90 low-leverage situations, Thornton had a 3.43 K/BB and a .734 OPS against with a .316 BABIP.

So as you can see, Thornton was at his best in high-leverage situations. A lot of those situations came in the eighth innings of close games with men on—essentially a save situation.

We don't know if Thornton has the mental makeup to have success in save situations until the Sox give him an extended try as a closer. Yes, there's a chance that the ninth inning gets to Thornton as it has to other former setup-men-turned-closers.

But if you look at Thornton's body of work, everything points to Thornton having no problems handling the ninth inning.

The White Sox could trade away Jenks and be set, but then the problem becomes how to fill Thornton's role. It's unlikely the Sox could find a lefty who could replace Thornton's 2.5 WAR. In fact, it's unlikely they could find any single reliever to replace that WAR.

However, if the Sox need to shed salary, Jenks will almost certainly be the first to go. I think Thornton can and will succeed in a closer role, but I'd still like to see Jenks stay for another year. I know he had a down year in 2009 (I'll get to that tomorrow in my player review of him), but trading Jenks would severely deplete the Sox' bullpen depth by moving Thornton out of the setup role.

If you read my player review of Tony Pena, you'll know that I'm cautiously optimistic he can have success next year. The prospect of having Pena throw the seventh, Thornton the eighth, and Jenks the ninth is enough to make me think the Sox won't be blowing many games for the theoretically dominant pitching staff they'll have next year.

Links!

• Cheat revists his preseason projection for Gavin Floyd.
• Jim relays an interesting quote from Jerry Owens.
• Andrew endorses the Angels and Dodgers in the LCS.

• Jordan Danks went 0-3 and C.J. Retherford went 1-3 with a triple in their AFL debuts yesterday. Keith Law graciously responded to my tweet asking about their performances with this:

  @ChiSoxExaminer I've never been a Jordan Danks guy - bad AB today and arm has been below average.

  Rob Quinn—one of my favorite fellow baseball Examiners—uses Pearl Jam to talk about fixing the Rays.

  I covered Mizzou basketball media day for KMOV.com yesterday and have highlights here. My favorite quote of the day came from Kimmie English, of course:

  We were three notches short of the bar we set last year. So we set the same bar this year, but we're not looking to that. We're looking to Friday to become the best team we can that day, and then do it again tomorrow. We're not worrying about next week, we're just worrying about being the best person we can be that day. We don't even know if we're going to wake up tomorrow, so might as well live today the best you can.

  Finally, dying for football analysis? Sure you are! Check out this Anatomy of 'No Gain' post over at Rock M Nation.