Just how big of trouble are the White Sox in?

August 12, 5:31 PMChicago White Sox ExaminerJJ Stankevitz

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Javier Vazquez has struggled since the start of June.

It's no secret: the White Sox haven't played like a playoff team since the All-Star break. They're 11-12 since July 15, allowing the Twins to stick around in the American League Central race.

The Sox have had their chances to pull away in the division, but dropping three of four in Minneapolis killed most of those chances. They've lost four of their six games against Kansas City after the All-Star break, and the upcoming three-game series at home against Kansas City doesn't look to be as easy as it should be.

Scott Linebrink's shoulder is still a big issue, Joe Crede seems to have gone AWOL, and Jose Contreras may have thrown his last pitch in the majors.

Boone Logan, who was dominant in the first three months of the season, was sent down to Triple-A Charlotte last week after seeing his ERA balloon into the 4.00's.

Javier Vazquez still is struggling, and Gavin Floyd and Mark Buehrle haven't been as consistent as they have been over stretches this year.

Yes, there are a lot of reasons to be worried about the White Sox. But just how worried should White Sox fans be about their team?

The starting rotation

John Danks has looked like his first-half self lately, allowing just three runs in 13.2 innings in his last two starts against the high-powered offenses of Detroit and Boston. During a four-start stretch from July 12 through July 31, Danks allowed four earned runs three times and six earned runs once, the only truly bad stretch of the year for him. The problem was that he was leaving his changeup high in the strike zone—and there isn't a major league hitter out there who isn't salivating at the prospect of hitting an 81 mph pitch that's elevated.

His changeup has been down lately, and, not coincidentally, so has his earned run total. As long as he can keep that pitch down in the zone, Danks will continue to be the leader of this rotation down the stretch.

Mark Buehrle had a similar, albeit shorter, rough patch lately, but he showed signs of pulling out of it on August 8 when he went 7.0 innings and allowed just one run against Boston. His location was much better than it had been in his previous two starts in which he allowed a combined 12 earned runs on 22 hits. Like Danks, Buehrle needs to keep his changeup low, but it's more important that he doesn't miss high with any of his pitches, as Buehrle does not have the kind of stuff Danks has that allows him to get away with leaving a fastball high in the zone.

The White Sox will need Buehrle to show up down the stretch, as the rest of the rotation is very much a question mark.

Yes, Gavin Floyd is the winningest pitcher on the White Sox at 12-6, but there have been doubters about his performance all year. The Hardball Times recently did an excellent analysis of Floyd, and came to this conclusion:

"The more I look into Gavin Floyd, the more I think he is on borrowed time and is likely to falter down the stretch for the White Sox. He has been getting good defense behind him. If he were getting a ton of ground balls, you might understand that, but that isn't the case with Floyd. He has some nice pitches, but they don't seem to mesh well and I am not thrilled with his slider in particular."

Floyd's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) has been extremely low this year—usually a sign that a pitcher is having success greatly due to his defense, or, to put it bluntly, is lucky. Over the course of a 162-game season, luck usually evens out—and there seems to be a very good chance that Floyd's luck will turn over the course of these final weeks. It's already started to look that way, as Floyd has allowed five earned runs in each of his last two starts. Keep in mind, too, that with Ken Griffey Jr. in center, the White Sox' defense is drastically worse. Floyd cannot afford that.

There's no question that Floyd has had brilliant starts this year—namely, when he's able to get his curveball over—but when hitters are laying off his curveball, his other pitches are extremely hittable.

Speaking of extremely hittable, Javier Vazquez has been just that since the start of June. After allowing two earned runs at Tampa Bay May 31, Vazquez has allowed three or fewer earned runs just three times. His ERA has jumped from 3.43 to 4.74, and it's largely in part to him consistently falling behind in counts. Vazquez has the best pure stuff of any starter on the White Sox, but he still seems to be afraid of pitching to contact. This leads him to nibble, and nibbling leads him to falling behind in the count. When he does, he starts walking hitters or giving up lots of hits.

And, of course, when you give up walks and hits, you give up runs and lose games.

There really isn't any reason to expect Vazquez to pull out of this pitching funk any time this year. It almost seems like he needs some time off to clear his head, but with the Sox as stretched as they are for pitching right now, that's not going to happen.

Finally, there's the fifth starter spot, which right now will go to DJ Carrasco, who has been a pleasant surprise out of the bullpen so far this year. However, Carrasco hadn't pitched in the majors before this year since 2005, when he started 20 games for the Royals and really struggled, walking 51 while only striking out 49 over 20 starts.

Carrasco has got by with the classic "cunning and guile" method, but it remains to be seen how Carrasco pitches when he has to face a lineup two or three times through.

If Carrasco falters, Lance Broadway would likely slide into the rotation, but he had a 4.68 ERA with Triple-A Charlotte. Despite being a former first-round pick, Broadway doesn't have the kind of potential as most players picked in the first few rounds. He's a low-ceiling pitcher, so what you see if likely what you get with him.

Taking a step back, Broadway is not the type of guy you want as your fifth starter if your team wants to make the playoffs.

And, unfortunately, this White Sox rotation does not look like the rock-solid group that it was before the All-Star break. John Danks is the closest the White Sox have to a guarantee stopper in their rotation, and if the White Sox want to make the playoffs, they're going to need Buehrle and Vazquez to step up and assume the 1-2 ace roles they were expected to fill before the start of the season.

Coming tomorrow: The bullpen.