The kiss of death, part II: Revised second-half American League predictions

July 17, 1:36 PMChicago White Sox ExaminerJJ Stankevitz

Previous Next

Comment Print Email RSS Subscribe

Subscribe

Get alerts when there is a new article from the Chicago White Sox Examiner. Read Examiner.com's terms of use.

Email Address   Include other special offers from Examiner.com Terms of Use

Joe Saunders is a big part of an Angels rotation that can lead them to the World Series.

Revised National League predictions

American League East

Preseason projection: Boston Red Sox

Current leader: Boston Red Sox (57-40)

Mid-season projection: Boston Red Sox

It's tough to pick against the great underdog story that is the Tampa Bay Rays, but the Red Sox have too much firepower and experience for the Rays to overtake them. David Ortiz will return to Boston in late July and solidify a lineup that has seen a resurgence from JD Drew. Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, and Drew will combine to form the most formidable middle of the order in the American League and Boston's pitching depth will ultimately carry them to the postseason.

Keep an eye on: New York Yankees

Yes, the Yankees haven't won a World Series since 2000, but they haven't missed the playoffs in 13 years. Yes, their pitching rotation looks thin. Yes, their bullpen has questions before Mariano Rivera. And yes, they may be without Hideki Matsui for the rest of the season. But never count out the New York Yankees—a fact that has been proven in the last three years when the Yankees looked dead in the water in the first two or three months. New York plays well at home (27-22) and on the road (23-23), something that could be a big factor in them competing for the playoffs down the stretch.

American League Central

Preseason projection: Cleveland Indians

Current leader: Chicago White Sox (54-40)

Mid-season projection: Minnesota Twins

I'm just going to go out and say this: the Minnesota Twins are the best organization in baseball. No other team in baseball could have lost Torii Hunter and Johan Santana in the offseason and found a way to be 11 games over .500 at the All-Star break. The Twins preach fundamentals in their minor leagues, and it pays huge dividends when they make it to the majors. They may not be the flashiest team, but they do all the little things right. Theoretically, their insane team batting average with men in scoring position should regress to the mean, but does it have to? While other teams are trying to hit 500-foot home runs in batting practice, the Twins use that time to work on situational hitting. They call out situations to their hitters in the cage and whoever is up works on executing those situations to perfection. Minnesota will also get a boost from Francisco Liriano, who has not allowed a run in his last 20 innings at Triple-A. All bullpen struggles aside, this is a Twins team that, history tells us, will find a way to win a lot of games in the second half and ultimately take the division from the White Sox.

Keep an eye on: Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have seen this story before: they come into the All-Star break with more talent than their rivals to the north, yet, in the end, the Twins always beat them out. It happened in 2003. It happened in 2004. It happened in 2006. As a Sox fan, I get the sinking feeling it's going to happen again in 2008. However, if the White Sox can pull everything together and pitch like they did in April and May and hit like they did in June, they will be a difficult team to beat down the stretch. The return of Bobby Jenks to the bullpen will take a load of pressure off Scott Linebrink, who hopefully can return to his April & May form. In the end, though, the White Sox will be battling the Twins to the very end, but ultimately, their best shot at making the playoffs may be through the Wild Card.

American League West

Preseason projection: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Current leader: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (57-38)

Mid-season projection: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The Angels are tied for the best record in baseball right now with the Chicago Cubs. Who knew? They've flown under the radar for most of 2008, being discounted by many as a "lucky" team. Their expected W-L is 50-45, while Oakland's is 55-40. By those numbers, the Angels should regress in the second half and the A's should battle them for the division crown. But that expected W-L doesn't tell the whole story. The Angels are reminiscent of the 2005 White Sox: a team that pitches the ball extremely well and has a penchant for winning close games. Their rotation is five-deep, with All-Stars Joe Saunders (12-5, 3.07 ERA) and Ervin Santana (11-3, 3.34 ERA), perennial Cy Young contender John Lackey (6-2, 2.46 ERA), and then two pitchers in Jon Garland (8-6, 4.20 ERA) and Jered Weaver (8-8, 4.03 ERA) who are having relative down years but are still excellent back-end starters. Francisco Rodriguez is on pace to break MLB's single-season save mark and Scot Shields and Jose Arredondo are both solid setup men. In short, the Angels are stacked with pitching—and that's what gets you to the playoffs.

Keep an eye on: Texas Rangers

As I wrote last week, the Rangers my pick for a team that could be primed for a 2007 Rockies-esque run. Their offense has three viable MVP candidates in Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, and Milton Bradley. Up and down the lineup, this team can flat-out hit, and if they're able to squeeze just a little bit of pitching (which won't be easy in the summer heat of the Metroplex), this is a Rangers team that could make a run. If they start to fall off a bit, look for them to try to deal Bradley away to a team that's looking for offense.

American League Wild Card

Preseason prediction: Seattle Mariners

Current leader: Tampa Bay Rays (55-39)

Mid-season projection: Chicago White Sox

This may have been the toughest call I've had in these mid-season predictions articles. In the end, though, it came down to the bullpens, and the White Sox have the advantage in that area. The Rays just don't know what they're going to get out of Troy Percival. He's set to return this weekend, but how long can he stay off the disabled list? Yes, I realize Bobby Jenks is coming off the disabled list now as well, but he does not have the injury history of Percival. In the end, though, it'll be Nick Masset, Matt Thornton, Octavio Dotel, Boone Logan, Scott Linebrink, and Jenks that lead the White Sox to the playoffs in a very competitive Wild Card race that should include the Rays and Yankees.

Keep an eye on: New York Yankees

Like I said earlier, you never can count the Yankees out. They may get a boost if Chien-Ming Wang returns to the rotation in September, but ultimately, injury problems keep this team out of the playoffs for the first time since 1993. The Yankees will make a run and scare some teams, however, so don't sleep on them just yet.

Playoffs

Preseason projection:

ALDS: Red Sox over Angels in 4, Indians over Mariners in 5

ALCS: Indians over Red Sox in 6

Mid-season projection:

ALDS: Angels over White Sox in 5, Red Sox over Twins in 4

ALCS: Angels over Red Sox in 6

World Series

National League Champion: Chicago Cubs

American League Champion: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Sorry, Cubs fans, but it's not gonna happen. Say what you will about the Cubs, but this is an Angels team that is the last team the Cubs want to face. They can win both at home (26-20) and on the road (31-18), and have a deeper pitching staff than the Cubs. The Cubs have the advantage offensively, but in the end, it's never an offense that wins you championships. It's pitching and defense, and the Angels have that.

World Series: Angels over Cubs in 5