The kiss of death, part II: Revised second-half National League predictions

The return of Alfonso Soriano will be key for the Cubs' success.

The first half of the 2008 MLB season has come and gone, and it hasn't gone the way I thought it would.

I had the World Series trophy fleeing to "The Cleve" behind an MVP year from the Indians' Travis Hafner.

I had the Seattle Mariners scrounging up just enough offense behind their great pitching to make the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

Like most everybody else, I didn't think the Rays would be competing with the Red Sox for the AL East.

The list of "things I was wrong about" goes on and on—from the Cardinals to the Marlins to the Padres to the Twins to the White Sox.

Now, there's still a long way to go in the season, so some of the less accurate predictions I came up with still might end up being correct.

But, since so much has deviated from what I thought, I'm going to go ahead and put in my revised 2008 predictions here during the All-Star break.

National League East

Preseason projection: New York Mets

Current leader: Philaelphia Phillies (52-44)

Mid-season projection: Philadelphia Phillies

I'd love to stick with guns and stay with the Mets, but they aren't going to play at this level for the rest of the year. It's tempting to pick them because they've won nine straight heading into the All-Star break and have played much better since Jerry Manuel took over for Willie Randolph, but in the end, I think the Phillies make a move to grab a starter (AJ Burnett?) to shore up the middle of their rotation.

The Mets will give the Phillies a run, but in the end, this is a Phillies team that will win out because of the depth they have. The Mets have had injury problems (Ryan Church's concussion problems, most importantly) all year, and these likely will linger and ultimately keep them out of the playoffs in favor of Philadelphia.

Keep an eye on: Atlanta Braves

The Braves can go in two directions: they can either finally start playing to their true ability (their expected W-L is 52-43), or they can continue to sink below .500 and deal away Mark Teixeira before July 31. Don't count them out just yet, but if they don't go on a run in the extremely near future, look for Atlanta to start dealing.

National League Central

Preseason projection: Chicago Cubs

Current leader: Chicago Cubs (57-38)

Mid-season projection: Chicago Cubs

While I don't think the Rich Harden trade will pay the kind of dividends the Cubs expect it to (he doesn't throw enough innings, so the bullpen will be taxed—and then, there's always the looming risk of injury), but in the end, the Cubs have the best bullpen, best rotation, best lineup, and best bench in the NL Central. When Alfonso Soriano returns, their offense will be even more fearsome than it already is. There's no reason to think they'll be overtaken by the Milwaukee Brewers or St. Louis Cardinals.

Well, except for one: they're the Cubs. But no amount of curses or jinxes or witchcraft will be able to keep a team this deep from winning the division crown.

Keep an eye on: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have been playing way over their heads this year, and it's starting to show lately. They don't have a playoff bullpen and their rotation will need big boosts from Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter if St. Louis wants to contend for the playoffs. I don't see that happening, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Cardinals finished the year below .500.

National League West

Preseason projection: Arizona Diamondbacks

Current leader: Arizona Diamondbacks (47-48)

Mid-season projection: Arizona Diamondbacks

Unfortunately, somebody has to make the playoffs from the NL West. Both the Diamondbacks and Dodgers have chronically underperofrming offenses but solid pitching staffs. In the end, I think the injury to the Dodgers' Rafael Furcal ultimately is what keeps them from overtaking the Diamondbacks, who, despite their offensive struggles, will be tough to stop come September with Brandon Webb and Dan Haren atop their rotation.

Keep an eye on: Colorado Rockies

Can the Rockies make another improbable run? Well, to put it shortly, no. At this time last year, the Rockies were hovering around .500 and weren't 14 games back of the Wild Card leader. Colorado may end up dealing reliever Brian Fuentes and All-Star outfielder Matt Holliday out of Denver for a king's ransom of prospects, so stay tuned to the rumors coming out of Denver.

National League Wild Card

Preseason prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

Current leader: St. Louis Cardinals

Mid-season projection: Milwaukee Brewers

As I said earlier, I think the Cardinals fall off in the second half, which leaves the Wild Card easily within Milwaukee's grasp. There could be a push by the Mets, but as long as the Brewers can keep Ben Sheets healthy, the trio of Sheets, CC Sabathia, and Manny Parra will be tough to get past down the stretch. The lack of a reliable bullpen (and the dominance of the Cubs) is what keeps the Brewers from winning the NL Central, but if they can find a way to shore up their bullpen (Fuentes?), they'll be a lock to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982.

Keep an eye on: New York Mets

There's no telling if Jerry Manuel can keep his team playing well into the second half, but never count out a team with Johan Santana at the top of its rotation. If New York can find a reliable back-end starter (Pedro Martinez and Oliver Perez have been anything but), they could find themselves in the thick of the Wild Card and/or NL East race.

Playoffs

Preseason projection:

NLDS: Diamondbacks over Mets in 5, Cubs over Dodgers in 4 

NLCS: Diamondbacks over Cubs in 6

Mid-season projection:

NLDS: Cubs over Diamondbacks in 4, Brewers over Phillies in 5

NLCS: Cubs over Brewers in 7

The Cubs will go into October with the NL's best record, which will give them home-field advantage throughout in the NLDS and NLCS. As good as the Cubs are at home (37-12 heading into the break), they've struggled on the road (20-26). These drastic home/road splits have been a trend with many of baseball's top teams (Cubs, Red Sox, Rays, White Sox, Twins, and Brewers all are well over .500 at home but under .500 on the road), and it should be a trend that continues into the playoffs.

That spells doom for the Cubs in the World Series against their American League opponent.

Now, for the cop-out: check out my American League mid-season predictions tomorrow. Sorry, I wanted to keep this thing short rather than long.