Examining the Javier Vazquez-to-Atlanta trade

December 3, 2:56 PMChicago White Sox ExaminerJJ Stankevitz

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Javy Vazquez was traded to Atlanta Tuesday afternoon.

Check below for updates.

As you've probably heard by now, the White Sox have agreed to trade Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan to the Altanta Braves. For whom is still in question, but it appears to be a lock that two of the players coming back will be SS Brent Lillibridge and C/1B Tyler Flowers, both minor leaguers.

There are a ton of reports out there on this trade, and none of them seem to agree past Lillibridge and Flowers. ESPN has Lillibridge and Jo-Jo Reyes, along with another "top prospect" (presumably Flowers) coming to the White Sox, while Ken Rosenthal has Lillibridge, Flowers, and two other "low-level minor leaguers" coming to the White Sox.

On the outset, Rosenthal's report seems to be more accurate, as the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Dave O'Brien says the players will be Lillibridge, Flowers, 3B Jon Gilmore, and P Santos Rodriguez, with Gilmore and Rodriguez being the two low-level minor leaguers. Rosenthal also was the first to break the rumor that the White Sox and Braves were in "serious" talks early in the afternoon, so his source may be more accurate than others that are reporting differently. Both the Braves and White Sox' MLB-affiliated sites are reporting that four players will be coming to Chicago as well.

However, nothing is expected to be finalized until tomorrow after Vazquez takes a physical in Atlanta. I'll have more thoughts up once the deal moves from speculation to fact, but barring an unexpected snag, Vazquez will be heading south.

Update, 10:58 AM

While nothing has been finalized just yet, all reports indicate it's going to be Lillibridge, Flowers, Gilmore, and Rodriguez, with Vazquez and Logan heading to Atlanta.

I don't have a ton of time here to write up something long on this, but just a few quick notes on each of the players:

• Lillibridge hopefully wasn't brought in to be a starter on offense. He's fast and a slick defender, but had a .294 OBP at AAA last year. He strikes out far too much for someone who walks so infrequently, and he's nowhere near the level of player that can start every day at the MLB level. If he was brought in as a reserve middle infielder, then he might have some value as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner.
• Flowers is the best player coming to Chicago in the deal. He's an offensive-minded catcher (in short, he hits well but defensively is sub-par) who Atlanta could afford to trade with Brian McCann entrenched at catcher for the long-term future. If he defense improves, he should be AJ Pierzynski's replacement in 2011. If his defense doesn't improve, he'll probably end up as a powerful first baseman. The one knock on Flowers is that he was suspended for performance-enhancing drugs in 2006, but hopefully, those days are behind him. He's an exceptional offensive talent.
• Gilmore and Rodriguez are both low-level players who Atlanta obviously wasn't too concerned with dealing. Rodriguez has the higher upside, but hasn't advanced past rookie ball.

Update, 2:56 PM

Alright, I have some time to actually formulate some thoughts on this one.

I don't hate this trade, which is surprising to me because I was so against trading Vazquez earlier in the offseason. However, that doesn't mean I'm enamored with it. I still think the White Sox are going to need another starter to throw 200 innings alongside Mark Buehrle, and if they don't bring in a starter who can do that (which seems unlikely), then the workload on John Danks and Gavin Floyd will be upped significantly, especially with a lot of youth likely at the back of the rotation. Even though Vazquez was maddeningly inconsistent, he provided bullpen-saving innings and took a lot of pressure off Danks and Floyd.

However, like I said, I don't hate the return for Vazquez. Getting rid of Boone Logan could allow 2007 first-round pick Aaron Poreda to head north with the big league club as a left-handed specialist, which certainly would be a plus if his offspeed stuff is coming along well.

Everything I've read about Flowers would seem to indicate that he's going to be an excellent offensive force down the road, and hopefully he can pair with Gordon Beckham, Brandon Allen, and Dayan Viciedo to form a powerful offensive core in a few years. Defensively, Flowers won't win any Gold Gloves, but hopefully he can be good enough to be an everyday catcher. If not, he does have DH to fall back on, but that's not something he should be excited about.

I really hope Lillibridge isn't as bad as his stats indicate he was in 2008 in AAA and the majors. Yes, he's fast, but if he can't get on base, that speed is useless. He'll compete with Chris Getz and Jayson Nix for the starting second base job out of spring training. Barring anything unexpected from Lillibridge or Nix, Getz should win the job with the other two battling for a reserve spot. If Lillibridge can hit just 40 points higher than his weight in spring training and show that he indeed does have a good eye for balls and strikes, he should make the team as a reserve middle infielder, which I wouldn't be too dismayed about. Given his recent sub-.300 OBPs, as long as he doesn't see the field on a consistent basis, he should contribute to the team.

Gilmore was a supplemental first-round pick in 2007 who hit .337 in the rookie league last year. He plays third base, and given that Brent Morel, Viciedo and Josh Fields are ahead of him in the system, he'll either change positions or be traded at a later date. He's only 20, so all of a sudden it looks like the White Sox have an influx of young third basemen in their system.

Rodriguez has been called a "sleeper" in the trade, as the tall, lanky reliever struck out 45 in just 29 innings in rookie ball last year. Like Gilmore, he's only 20 and has a long way to go, but he may be someone to watch in the coming years. It's always hard to evaluate talent in rookie ball, so we may know whether Rodriguez is a decent prospect or bust just by how he pitches in A-ball this year.

This return wasn't awful for Vazquez and it cleared $23 million in salary. It still remains to be seen whether the White Sox are simply clearing salary to lower payroll or if they're doing it so they can get Danks, Floyd, and Carlos Quentin signed to deals that buy out their arbitration years.

What the trade definitely means is that another starting pitcher is coming, unless Kenny Williams is delirious with thoughts of Jeff Marquez' sinker dancing in his head. The fact that another starter did not come back in the Vazquez trade probably means Jermaine Dye will be dealt for a starter sometime soon. There have already been rumblings in Cincinnati and Tampa Bay about Dye, and more recently, a rumor was floated out there that the White Sox and Mets are working on a blockbuster deal involving Dye and Bobby Jenks. That might be something to stay tuned in to during the Winter Meetings.

There's no question now that the White Sox' goal this offseason is to get younger and cheaper. The goal of getting younger is to replenish a farm system that a year ago looked about as barren as the state of Kansas, but the goal of getting cheaper has yet to be determined. Maybe they don't have the money, maybe they want to pay their soon-to-be arbitration-eligible players, or maybe they're saving up to make a run at a high-profile free agent (please, nobody say CC Sabathia, because it's not going to happen).

The Winter Meetings sure will be interesting, though. Kenny Williams is far from done dealing.