Can John Danks and Gavin Floyd repeat their breakout seasons?

December 13, 5:08 PMChicago White Sox ExaminerJJ Stankevitz

Previous Next

4 comments Print Email RSS Subscribe

Subscribe

Get alerts when there is a new article from the Chicago White Sox Examiner. Read Examiner.com's terms of use.

Email Address   Include other special offers from Examiner.com Terms of Use

Gavin Floyd had a very solid year for the Sox in 2008, but there are some red flags that could lead to a downturn in 2009.

Before the 2008 season began, I predicted that if Jose Contreras, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd all had good seasons, the White Sox would contend in the AL Central. The Sox got about two good months of out Contreras before he fell apart, but Danks and Floyd held their own throughout 2008. As a result, the White Sox had a lot of success in the unexpectedly weak AL Central.

But where will Danks and Floyd, neither of whom have extensive track records in the majors, end up in 2009? Predicting future performance isn't easy unless you're Bill James, but there are a few indicators that can be looked at when viewing pitchers. I'll do my best to explain these and what they mean for Danks and Floyd in 2009.

Danks' 2008 line: 12-9, 3.32 ERA, 33 starts, 195.0 IP, 159 K, 1.23 WHIP, 2.79 K/BB

After a dreadful rookie campaign in 2007, the 23-year-old Danks took off in 2008. The addition of a cut fastball to his repertoire had an outstanding effect on his performance, as with it, he was able to challenge hitters inside, making the rest of his pitches a whole lot harder to hit.

The addition of the cutter also took a lot of pressure of Danks' curveball, which he throw 17.4 percent of the time in 2007. That often was his go-to pitch when he got into trouble, but the addition of the cutter gave him a far more useful pitch when he got into jams. As a result, only 6.4 percent of the pitches Danks threw in 2008 were curveballs, and he was far better off for it. Danks has a fine curveball, but no pitcher can get away with throwing it as frequently as Danks did in 2007.

Danks also saw his velocity rise on his fastball from an average of 89.5 mph in 2007 to 91.3 in 2008. Coupled with the addition of the cutter and far better location with his changeup, Danks was primed for a breakout last year.

He put it all together mainly by keeping the ball on the ground. In 2007, 45.8 percent of balls put in play off Danks were fly balls—a recipe for disaster in the homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field. That percentage dropped to 35.4 while his ground ball percentage shot up to 42.8 percent in 2008. Hitters had to respect every pitch in Danks' repertoire, and when he was keeping the ball down runs usually were in short supply for the opposing team.

The icing on the no-fluke cake is Danks' 3.44 FIP in 2008.

Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger.

Don't let the math scare you off—FIP is an excellent statistic for measuring a pitcher's true ability. Often, if a pitcher's ERA is significantly lower than his FIP, it means the season he had was a mirage. If ERA and FIP roughly match up, it means the pitcher's season should be about par for the course.

For Danks, his 3.32 ERA to 3.44 FIP meant that 2008 was no fluke. Yes, there's always the chance of Danks' arm fatiguing from throwing 195.0 innings in 2008, but he's only 23 and pitchers in this era are often coddled. Danks should be fine for 2009. However, I'm not sure we can say the same about Floyd.

Floyd's 2008 line: 17-8, 3.84 ERA, 33 starts, 206.1 IP, 145 K, 1.26 WHIP, 2.07 K/BB

Unlike Danks, Floyd's ERA and FIP were in different area codes in 2008, with his FIP being nearly a run higher than his ERA at 4.77. This stat does not bode well for Floyd in 2009, as it indicates that his true pitching ability is likely with an ERA somewhere in the mid-to-upper 4.00's.

Another red flag for 2009 is Floyd's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in 2008. Most pitchers hold opponents to about a .300 BABIP, give or take a few percentage points. Only those wth excellent stuff can consistently hold batters to below a .290 BABIP year in and year out.

Floyd doesn't have excellent stuff, though. He has a very good curveball, but his fastball, slider, and changeup are all average pitches. Sooner or later, more balls are going to start finding the outfield grass when Floyd is on the mound. If not, he may go down as one of the luckiest pitchers of all time.

When you couple that Floyd's BABIP with triple-A Charlotte in 2007 was .294 with the fact that he had an abnormally low BABIP in the majors in 2008, it's reasonable to expect that statistic to rise.

Floyd is going to have to cut down on his walks if he wants to soften the blow that likely will come to his ERA in 2009. He averaged over 3.00 walks per nine innings in 2008—a number that's astonishingly high for a pitcher who pitched so well. Floyd likely won't be able to afford to walk so many batters once he starts allowing more hits.

Now, there are some things to like about Floyd. He threw over 200 innings in 2008 and should be able to do the same in 2009, which is something the White Sox will need with two rookies likely filling out the back of the rotation. He keeps the ball on the ground (41.2 percent of balls in play were grounders off Floyd last year). And, hey, he almost threw a no-hitter twice last year.

However, the odds are stacked against Floyd coming in 2009. I was wracking my brain trying to find a suitable comparison to Floyd, and then it hit me: who was the last White Sox pitcher to have a surprise breakout year without any great pitches?

Jon Garland. Let's take a look at Garland's line from 2005 and 2006 compared to Floyd in 2008:

2005 Garland: 18-10, 3.50 ERA, 32 starts, 221.0 IP, 115 K, 1.17 WHIP, 2.45 K/BB, 2.68 BABIP, 4.24 FIP

2008 Floyd: 17-8, 3.84 ERA, 33 starts, 206.1 IP, 145 K, 1.26 WHIP, 2.07 K/BB .268 BABIP, 4.77 FIP

2006 Garland: 18-7, 4.51 ERA, 211.1 IP, 112 K, 1.36 WHIP, 2.73 K/BB, 3.13 BABIP, 4.35 FIP

2009 Floyd: ?

Garland's FIP stayed relatively the same from 2005 to 2006, but his BABIP jumped back to normal after being so far below normal in 2005. Garland still got results, but he was far from the pitcher he was in 2005 and has descended back into mediocrity ever since that magical year.

The difference between 2005 and 2006 for Garland is raw proof of a pitcher outperforming his own abilities one year and then coming back to earth the next. Garland still had 18 wins in 2006, but had he played for a team that did not have an out-of-this-work offense like the Sox did that year, he would have gone right back to being the mediocre pitcher he had been previous to 2005.

All in all, though, Floyd is still a decent pitcher to have as a No. 3 or No. 4 starter. He'll eat innings and give you a flashy start once in a while, but he should not be expected to pitch like a top-of-the-rotation starter in 2009.

What worries me is that the White Sox are currently overvaluing Floyd. The Sox will have a nice 1-2 punch in Mark Buehrle and Danks heading the rotation, but after that, it gets fuzzy with Floyd and a pair of rookies likely rounding out the rotation. Given the market for starting pitching, though, the White Sox should not go out and sign a free agent. But maybe instead of trading Jermaine Dye for a young pitcher (which is looking less and less likely), they should search for a starter with a track record—that is, if Kenny Williams really does want to contend in 2009.