Villaraigosa's withdrawal could open door for 2010 California governor's race

June 23, 8:47 AMCalifornia Statehouse ExaminerScott Sabatini

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Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa announced Monday he would not run for governor in 2010.
(AP/File).

California political pundits decisively declared California Attorney General Jerry Brown the winner or round 1 in the so-called head-to-head race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2010 between Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom.

No sooner had Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa announced on Monday he would not run for governor in 2010 did the furious speculation of a Bay Bridge Battle for governor between Brown and Newsom seize the spotlight.

With Tony V stepping aside because he said he can't abandon his city in a time of crisis -- though a smokin' hot new relationship with a news reporter may be just too similar to the past affair with a news reporter that ended his marriage in scandal -- and Lt. Gov. John Garamendi having left the race to run for the House of Representatives, Brown and Newsom are the two most significant Democrats left standing.

Brown hasn't officially announced, as he likes to remind everyone who asks these days despite have told the Washington Post back in January that he was going to run, but he will soon enough. Especially now that he's the clear favorite. In the most recent polls pitting Tony V, Brown and Newsom against each other, Brown led but Villaraigosa was a sturdy second, a handful of percentage points behind.

Now most experts believe the Los Angeles Mayor's base in southern California and among Latino voters slide solidly into Brown's camp.

Joe Trippi, who is expected to run Brown’s campaign, told Calbuzz.com that Brown benefited in many ways.

“How’s Gavin going to pick up much of Antonio’s vote?” Trippi said. “He’s not going to beat Jerry among Latinos and blacks.”

Others sounded a similar tune. A quick scan of the major headlines from today's newspapers from San Diego to Sacramento showed Brown clearly benefiting the most from Monday's announcement.

But let's hold off with the knockout countdown.In reality, the microphone hasn't even dropped down to the announcer yet, let alone the pugilists tossing haymakers in the 2010 Democratic primary fight for governor.

For one thing, Brown still needs to formally announce. More importantly, others need time to weigh this shift in the political sands and decide if they may want to enter the race.

Others? Yep, plenty of them. A massive state like California has a lengthy roll call of potential contenders who seeing the opening could decide to go ahead and launch a campaign.

For starters, there's a laundry list of names that have lain in the weeds, waiting for things to shake out among the bigger names. Treasurer Bill Lockyer is quietly sitting on a $10 million war chest and can immediately launch a well-funded campaign. State School Superintendent Jack O'Connell could easily become a one-issue candidate, saving the schools from draconian budget cuts in Sacramento. Lost in all the discussion is the fact that political outsiders are all the rage these days, and surely there are some bazillionaire Democrats down near Hollywood that woke up this morning thinking, "Hmmmn... if Arnold could do it..."

Villaraigosa's Latino base is very much up for grabs. Tony V wasn't the only strong Hispanic political leader out there, just the best known. A relative unknown similar to Barack Obama could launch an upstart bid. Right now the potential slate of contenders to replace Brown as attorney general is among the most ethnically and politically diverse slates in American campaign history. Who is to say that someone like Assembly Majority Leader Alberto Torrico or even San Francisco City Attorney Kamala Harris, suddenly decide that the governor's race is far too white for voters tastes?

Brown and Newsom are both hog-tied to the Bay Area. Though Brown, as a former governor, has a strong base up and down the state, he would struggle against a viable southern Californian candidate that can step into Tony V's shoes.

And before we ring the bell on the opening rounds of a head-to-head Bay Bridge Battle in 2010, let's not forget one other San Franciscan who might still have a thing or two to say about this. U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein has not said whether she will run, though most political experts say she won't. Her buddy, former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown said last year that Feinstein would likely only run if convinced she will win. Strangely, Tony V and a crowded field would have made it harder for her to be sure. Facing only Brown and Newsom, she clears the field. Some speculate Brown's sudden interest in delaying his announcement is entirely based on a final decision from Feinstein.

Knowing she would face little, if any, completion in the primary, also would remove the obstacle of having to tirelessly raise money. As one political analyst said recently, how well do you think the idea of Meg Whitman being California’s first female governor sits with Feinstein?

Perhaps the news of the day is not the two men left standing but how the race for governor in 2010 suddenly got more muddled than a well-made mojito. 

The 2010 Contenders:

• Democrat Gavin Newsom.
• Republican Meg Whitman.
• Republican Steve Poizner.
• Republican Tom Campbell.
• Next up: Attorney General Jerry Brown.
  See a slideshow of the governor candidates, click here.
• Coming soon: Attorney General Candidates.

More California News:

• Michelle Obama speaks in San Francisco on service.
• Governor vows to veto Dems proposed budget.
• Obama reaches out to gay and lesbian supporters.
• Office of AIDS on chopping block.