El Nino? Will it rain in 2009?

July 9, 10:48 PMLA Weather ExaminerPablo Pereira

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The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration said today that El Niño, the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has developed and is expected to persist through the winter months.

Translation: Stronger winds over the tropical Atlantic, but maybe fewer tropical storms and hurricanes. In May, NOAA cited developing El Niño conditions in the Atlantic hurricane season forecast. Still, the agency forecast a near-normal number of named storms, nine to 14, to form in the Atlantic basin this season. Atlantic hurricane season lasts through Nov. 30.

In the USA, look for more precipitation in the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires. The downside can include damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess in the South.

According to NOAA, El Niño occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months. The last one was in 2006.

OK so what are we supposed to believe?. I remember when I moved back to Southern California in the mid-90's we had one of the wettest winters in years.  Can we expect that this winter?.  I have learned to not get to excited just yet.   It seems in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico,  every time we learn of great predictions for a busy hurricane season it often is a bust.  

Let's examine the facts for a moment here in the Western U.S.  The top image you are looking at no doubt would seem to show the warm waters one would need to forecast a El Nino type event.  But let us remember it is still early in the season.  Often the top image becomes more like the bottom image once the storm season arrives.  My friends at JPL - do get excited about the ability to see and research such images.  But know that El Nino/La Nina is a fairly new weather condition as far as Meteorologist are concerned.  Does not mean it did not happen 100 years ago or more.  It is just that with limited records - El Nino is often far harder to predict than other types of weather.  

Recent History?.  2006 turned out to be what some would call a mild El Nino - after forecasters early in the year predicted a big event for winter.  More recent history?.  We just finished the annual rainfall season more than 6 inches below normal on the rain totals.  Should have about 15 inches in Downtown Los Angeles.    One strange event.  In San Diego - which historically is drier than Los Angeles,  they only finished an inch and a half below normal.  All due for the most part to a couple of big storms early in the season.  So even historical records are often not  accurate in explaining the differences and why they occurred. 

So - Don't get me wrong.  I would love to see a wet winter.  Not only for our state water supplies which sit well below where they should be,  but it would sure make my job a lot more interesting being able to forecast storms for an entire winter. Either way I will likely get my leaky roof fixed this summer when roofers need the work:).