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Rain on the way for southeast the next few days

As I mentioned yesterday, a complicated and unsettled weather pattern is ahead the next few days for much of the southeast US. A strong cut-off upper level low will be over the central US which will serve to create a moist and increasingly unstable atmosphere over much of the southeast US and in the Carolinas.

 

Heavy rain will fall over much of Georgia and some of this rain will push into the state today, but most will stay south of North Carolina today. We could see some late afternoon rain across the Triangle. A heavier and steadier rainfall will occur tomorrow as a large area of rain will move in from southwest to northeast and there could be some embedded thunderstorms with this mass of rain. As of now it does not look like there will be any severe weather tomorrow. The rain will move out of the Triangle Thursday night and we will likely see a dry day for much of the state on Friday. However instability aloft could lead to some isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Friday afternoon. It is possible that some of these storms could be severe, although as of now I am not anticipating a widespread outbreak.

 

We will see one last surge of rain and storms late Friday through Saturday morning, as a squall line could form over north Georgia, east Tennessee, northwest South Carolina, and western NC and lift northeast across the state Saturday morning. Since this will occur at night we will likely not see a widespread severe weather outbreak with this, but I will keep my eye on it.

 

Down the road, cooler air will move in Sunday and next week as we see temperatures drop back to slightly below normal values for mid-March. Although the long range models have been all over the place recently, there is some growing evidence that we could see a more sustained warm pattern develop for late March and into April. It appears winter’s bite is just about over.