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Hurricane Ida near category 2 status, targets US Gulf Coast

As I mentioned last night, Ida had the potential to at least flirt with category 2 status and as of this morning Ida is just below category 2 status at 90mph sustained winds as of 7am this morning. Ida has been bending to the northwest and this will mean a close pass to the northeast tip of the Yucatan later today.

 

Ida will likely continue to strengthen today and could attain category 2 status with winds of around 100-110mph before weakening begins potentially tomorrow. I do not expect Ida to reach category 3 status today, but it is not out of the question. Ida will continue to move northwest around the western flank of an upper ridge over Florida before turning more NNW tomorrow and N and NE by tomorrow night as an upper trough interacts with Ida. The resulting shear from this trough along with cooler November SST’s in the GOM will result in weakening and Ida will likely transition into a potent extra-tropical storm as she approaches the east-central Gulf coast tomorrow night and Tuesday morning. The Gulf coast from eastern Louisiana to the Florida west coast will likely experience tropical storm force winds along with heavy rain and high surf.

 

A large swath of 3-6 inches of rain is likely from the Gulf Coast into the Carolina and the lower mid-Atlantic as Ida’s moisture interacts with a cold front.