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ATCF tracks
“Tropical Depression Ida Discussion Friday November 6th”
Ida has weakened over land is now a weak tropical depression over extreme eastern Honduras. There still appears to be a well defined circulation associated with Ida, so it has not totally fallen apart. It looks as though Ida will emerge into the northwest Caribbean Sea tonight.
One noticeable shift in the 12z ATCF models this morning shown below has been to bend Ida back to the west a bit, to where it crosses the Yucatan peninsula later this weekend and early next week. If this occurs the potential strengthening of Ida will be diminished greatly. Some of the models do show Ida only crossing the western tip of the Yucatan, which would not lead to as much weakening obviously. The GFDL model has also backed off on the extreme intensification of Ida in the Caribbean, and now and the HWRF show Ida as a low end category 1 hurricane. This is probably more of a reasonable expectation, although with the available heat content in the northwest Caribbean along with the fact that Ida’s circulation looks to remain intact as it emerges from Honduras, further intensification cannot be ruled out.
As far as the synoptic setting and the potential track of Ida goes, the overall forecast setup remains the same. A strengthening upper ridge over Florida will steer Ida to the northwest and exactly how strong this ridge ends up being and what intensity Ida attains will determine how far west she goes. A weaker Ida may indeed follow the more westward course across the Yucatan peninsula, while a stronger Ida may track further east. Either way Ida or what is left of Ida if she tracks over the Yucatan will emerge into the gulf early next week where a trough in the central US will erode the western flank of the southeast ridge. This will allow Ida to turn north and potentially northeast or east-northeast. However, the question remains does this trough dip far enough south to capture Ida over the southeast and drag here into the southeast US or Florida, or does it turn Ida ENE for a while but then leave her behind in the Gulf, where a slow demise probably awaits? Most of the guidance is showing the latter scenario, while some show the former (particularly the UKMET). Right now the modeling favors the left behind scenario, I am still not sure as of yet. I think Ida has a shot to reach cat 1 status if she follows the more eastward track and possibly cat 2 status and also has a greater chance to be a US threat, but a westward track increases the chances of a weaker storm and a left behind scenario.
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