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Tropical Storm Ida update

Ida is slowly weakening over eastern Nicaragua this afternoon as the cloud top temperatures are cooling, although the overall structure of the storm remains impressive. Ida’s winds were 65mph as of 1pm and it will likely continue to weaken tonight and will likely be a minimal tropical storm or depression by tomorrow morning.

 

The models have shifted a bit east today and keep Ida over land for a little less time. However it will likely be Friday night or Saturday morning still before Ida emerges into the northwest Caribbean. We will just have to see how much of the circulation is left and how well it looks before we have a good idea on how much strengthening may occur in the northwest Caribbean. There is significant heat content still in the northwest Caribbean and wind shear looks to be low, so I still expect significant strengthening to occur over the weekend as Ida moves into this area, assuming that it’s trip over land does not kill it.

 

As far as the future track and the modeling goes, there has been some agreement between the GFS and some of the other tropical models and consensus models that Ida may move NW grazing the NW tip of the Yucatan and into the Gulf where it will start to feel the tug of Midwest US trough early next week and this would turn in NE or ENE targeting potentially targeting Florida. However the GFS leaves Ida behind as the trough departs without fully capturing it and Ida wanders in the Gulf before dying. The 12z ECMWF continues to not properly resolve Ida and is instead making a bigger deal of the southern GOM disturbance and messing up its track with what it depicts as Ida.

 

The bottom line is that it makes synoptic sense that Ida will likely emerge in the NW Caribbean by Friday night or Saturday morning and be in an environment conducive to strengthening, potentially significant. Ida has a good chance to be a category 1 hurricane by Sunday and potentially a category 2 cane by early next week. As Ida moves into the Gulf a less hospitable environment SST wise and also from an atmospheric perspective and will likely start to weaken. In order for this to impact the US as a hurricane it likely needs to be captured by this trough next week and being to move quickly likely targeting Florida and becoming a major rain maker for parts of the southeast. The other alternative remains that Ida is not capture by this trough, and then it would likely fall apart as it meanders in the Gulf with increasing wind shear and very dry continental air spilling into the Gulf. Stay tuned.