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Changeable weather across the U.S.
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Nov 3rd 2009 General National Discussion
- “Cool week for the east this week”
- “Northeast storm may stay off shore”
- “Very warm weekend and next week for Midwest/East”
- “Cool pattern being shown to re-develop by mid-month”
Some snow showers could fly the next couple of days across the Great Lakes, upper Midwest, and northeast as a cold front sweeps across and a storm forms off the northeast coast later tomorrow and Thursday. There will also be some lake effect snows in the typical areas. I think the low will stay far enough off the northeast coast to spare most areas significant snow, however eastern coastal New England should keep any eye on things to make sure. Boston could see some snow from this Thursday night and Friday morning, however the boundary layer may be too warm, we shall see.
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It will be a cool week in general for the Lakes and the eastern US with temperatures running 5-10 degrees below normal for many. However, a BIG warming trend will commence across the central US by later in the week and into the northeast and east coast by next week. Highs could be 10-20 degrees above normal for cities such as Detroit, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. So much of next week looks to be warm in the major populated regions of the Midwest and east. The anomalies will be less the further south you go. The core of the highest anomalies will likely be over the central Great Lakes.
The ensemble models for several runs now have been pumping up western North American ridge in the 11-15 day range, specifically by mid-month and consequently developing an eastern US trough with a colder pattern developing by mid-month. Confidence is a little higher in this today since the ensemble models held to this solution and because the ECMWF and GFS ensembles are both showing this. The NAO also is forecast to go negative in this time frame. Even though I am thinking November and December will average warmer than normal for the most part in the east, I did think we would get a 2 week period or so of a colder pattern for late November and early December. Perhaps this is the signs of this coming a little earlier than thought.
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