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El Nino now at moderate levels
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El Nino/La Nina Update
“Region 3.4 warms into moderate range for first time since January 2007”
The weekly region 3.4 number has continued warming and we have now edged into the moderate range for the first time with this current episode and for the first time since January 2007. The region has warmed 0.4C in just the last 2 weeks thanks to a westerly wind burst which has brought about warming to much of the equatorial Pacific basin by slowing down the usually brisk trade winds and allowing the water to warm. The western regions have warmed a great deal too with region 4 now at +1.4 which is getting close to the strong range. This has become an El Nino event centered in the central and western regions of the eq Pacific basin.
Week Ending | Region 3.4 departure from normal |
8/5/2009 | 0.8 |
8/12/2009 | 0.7 |
8/19/2009 | 0.7 |
8/26/2009 | 0.9 |
9/2/2009 | 0.9 |
9/9/2009 | 0.9 |
9/16/2009 | 0.9 |
9/23/2009 | 0.8 |
9/30/2009 | 0.7 |
10/7/2009 | 0.7 |
10/14/2009 | 0.9 |
10/21/2009 | 1.1 |
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Below are the latest trade winds and you can see the warm colors all along the equatorial Pacific ocean indicative westerly wind anomalies disrupting the usual trade wind circulation causing the time series to look more El Nino like. The subsurface not shown today, is also continuing to be very warm.
I now think we will likely stay in this moderate range for several weeks and this is fitting nicely my anticipated peak of this Nino in the moderate range during November/December. We will have to see if strengthening continues or if we ease back.
Again, if you have questions about ENSO phase please ask questions or check out this link which explains the process further http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/enso/
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