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The Colorado Rapids hit the half way mark at a crawl
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With fifteen games behind them, the Rapids have reached the mid-season milestone. Having passed that mark it is time to look at how the team is performing this season.
Currently the Rapids are sitting in fourth place in the Western Conference four points behind the Seattle Sounders. In the overall league standings the Rapids are in the eighth and final playoff spot.
The Rapids have held a game in hand on several other teams for some time now. To even that score we can look at the points-per-game. Teams receive three points for each win and one point for each draw. On this scale, the Rapids are still fourth in the west, but jump a spot to seventh overall in the league.
A few games ago the Rapids points-per-game tally was among the best of the league. But, games-in-hand are promise of nothing. Teams have to win those games, and the Rapids did not. The Rapids made up one of the two games they held over the rest of the league when they hosted F.C. Dallas. The tie that the Rapids barely earned had a big hit on the teams standing overall.
In the grand scheme of things, the Rapids are about where one would expect, and even a step above projections. The games they have lost have been against Chivas, Chicago, Seattle, and Houston. Of the four Houston and Chivas are simply better. The Rapids would probably like to have another go at Seattle and Houston with their full squad.
Squad depth is the rub for the Rapids, as it is for the majority of MLS teams. At the top of MLS, there are the clear leaders, Houston and Chivas. Right behind the leading teams are:
The remaining teams are those that can have a big win, but are just as likely to pull of an inexplicable loss. The Rapids are usually among that group. That is why the last three games have been so worrying to the Rapids fans. The three game winless streak looks too much like Rapids teams of the past giving up points that they should get.
The 2009 Rapids and the 2008 Rapids
Comparisons to the past are seldom fair, seldom rational, but inevitable. Where do the Rapids stand against their 2008 predecessors? A quick look at the standings does not make this team standout. The 2009 Rapids have 21 points through 15 games. The 2008 team had 19 points through fifteen games. Those two extra points are all the 2009 team can show as improvement of their 2008 predecessors.
A closer look reveals a few differences may be signs of hope.
First, the 2009 forwards have been much more productive than their 2008 counterparts were. So far, Omar Cummings and Conor Casey have combined for fourteen goals. By this time last year the forwards had scored ten of the team’s goals, with the top score Tam McManus tallying four. Conor Casey has eight of his own this year even after missing three games. Omar Cummings has six goals, equaling his 2008 output. Both forwards are in the top five in goals scored for the league.
The success of Omar and Conor has come at the price of the Rapids having to lose both players to their national teams. That area separates the 2008 team from the 2009 team as well. The Rapids have been used to losing Pablo Mastroeni to national team service. Last year they lost Bouna Coundoul for three games to the African Cup of Nations. Those players were key, but the Rapids have traditionally had defensive depth to cover for those losses. This is the first time the Rapids have had to endure the loss of goal scorers.
The achilles heal for the Rapids has been the defense, which has not improved. The Rapids have only managed one shut out this season. By this time last year the team had six shut outs. The Rapids have had leads and got timely goals from their forwards, but the defense has been all to willing to cede the advantage. The signing of Julian Baudet will, it is hoped, solve this problem.
The Stats
The historical knock on the Rapids has been that the team always starts strong, goes through a rough patch in July and August, and then pushes hard to reach the last playoff spot. Considering that history, the Rapids are about where they always are, doing well but hitting the summer doldrums. Some things have changed, but no one will know the outcome until the games in July and August have been played.
The Climbing the Ladder blog has an interesting look at historical results of MLS team's first half and second half performances. Turns out the Rapids have improved in the second half of the season as often as they have got worse. The Rapids have increased their points per game in the second half on six different occasions. They have decreased those points on six different occasions. In addition, in a year of stunning consistent mediocrity the team kept constant points per game for each half of the season in 2008, but missed the playoffs.
The blog also notes that teams that have a rate of 1.28 - 1.48 points per game by midseason have declined in the second half more often than they have improved. The Rapids finished the first 15 games with 1.4 points per game, if they improve they'll be bucking the trend.
Does it matter?
If the Rapids are able to maintain a rate of 1.4 points-per-game, they will surely make the playoffs. A rate of 1.4 points a game would see the Rapids finish the season with 42 points, which is good enough to get the team back into the playoffs. Anything better than that and the Rapids may even get home field advantage.
