Updated: MLS Expansion and the Colorado Rapids

A "Home Grown" player is one that has lived with his parents in the teams home territory for at least a year prior to that player being receiving the designation.  Confused?  Fortunately, for the confused, the Rapids do not seem to have any such player.  Presumably Conor Casey and Colin Clark have moved out of their parent's homes already.

At least Generation Adidas is fairly straight forward.  Those guys are simply sponsored by Generation Adidas until they graduate from the program.  The Rapids have two of those, Ciaran O'Brien and Rob Valentino.  They are automatically protected.  Neither saw a minute of action so one wonders if the organization would prefer to be able to set each free.  Time will tell.  Both are young.

Internationals, are simply the high priced, occasionally talented, players who have are brought in to class up the game.       

Past performance is no indication of future success

Now that the rules have been defined the big question is, "what will the Rapids do?"

To get an idea of what the Rapids might do we can take a peek at last year.  MLS held a similar draft last year.  The Rapids protected the following players:

• Mehdi Ballouchy
• Conor Casey
• Colin Clark
• Bouna Coundoul
• Omar Cummings
• Cory Gibbs
• Christian Gomez
• Ugo Ihemelu
• Nick LaBrocca
• Pablo Mastroeni
• Jacob Peterson

Also, protected were the Rapids 2009 Generation Adidas players, Nico Colaluca and Ciaran O'Brien.  

The list, when it came out, was stunning for leaving Terry Cooke exposed to the draft.  Speculations on leaving Cooke exposed ranged from the team gambling to Cooke simply not figuring in the Gary Smith's plans.   As we saw in 2009 it turned out to be an omen for Cooke, who was left out of Smith's grand designs.

On the other hand, Christian Gomez was included and it was clear that he did not figure in the Rapids future.  Gomez spent the end of 2008 on the bench.  A decision coach Gary Smith made, but was also a trend that started with Fernando Clavijo.  Speculators suggested that Gomez had a no trade clause in his contract, which would have forced the Rapids to protect him.

Of the players left unprotected two became regulars in 2009.  Both Kosuke Kimura and Jordan Harvey were left available.  Was that a gamble?  Coach Smith certainly did not make any trades that suggested either weren't in the plans.  The opposite is true, each player was given a contract extension.

Of the sixteen unprotected players, only four are still with the organization.  By contrast the Rapids still have eight of the 11 protected players.  Clearly they were in the plans.

What will Smith do?

Speculators can immediately remove the Generation Adidas players Ciaran O'Brien and Rob Valentino from the equation.

My guess is that these will be the eleven protected players:

• Omar Cummings - a no-brainer for the organization.  The Rapids must protect three Internationals.  Why not start with the league's leading assist man?
• Julien Baudet - Baudet was a Smith signing and the guy that Smith is hoping will organize and lead the Rapids leaky defense. He's the second International the team will protect.
• Jamie Smith - Another Smith signing.  When asked what player fans should look forward to in 2010, Smith wasted no time in mentioning Jamie.  Expectations are high.  Many fans still begrudge him the fact that his presence ended the Terry Cooke era.  He's fills the third, spot for required International protections.
• Conor Casey - Casey and Smith might be at each others throats, but there's no way the Rapids would let anyone have the league's second leading scorer for free.  
• Pablo Mastroeni - Pablo is the team's most accomplished player.  He's the team's captain and the longest serving member of the squad.  Even if the Rapids were willing to let him go, it wouldn't be as a freebie.
• Colin Clark - Clark's season ended with knee surgery.  His recovery may be long and it may take a while to get his explosiveness back, but he's a key to the Rapids future. 
• Nick LaBrocca - The team's Swiss Army knife, Nick is the heir apparent to Pablo's spot.  He has the virtue of being able to provide cover in several positions on the field.  Last year he played in all four midfield positions, and at left back.
• Jordan Harvey - Harvey started all but one game in 2009.  He's not a solution at midfield, but he's turned into a solid left back.  That's a rarity in MLS.  
• Drew Moor - The Rapids acquired Drew in a trade with Dallas that saw Ugo Ihemelu go the other way.  Moor stepped right into the Rapids back line, looking comfortable from the first touch.
• Kosuke Kimura - Kimura, like Jordan Harvey, was left exposed last year, but took his opportunities this year and made a convincing case for his continued presence. 
• Matt Pickens  - Pickens is the Rapids number one goal keeper, a position that the Rapids won't want to spend the off season looking to fill.

That's the Rapids protected eleven and likely starters if everyone's available and healthy.  

Will the prediction prove correct?  It's hard to tell.  Nobody expected the Rapids to leave Cooke exposed last year.  The move turned out to be predictive.  Who the Rapids expose this year may be equally predictive.

Update

Today the Rapids released their list of protected players.  The protected player were:

• Goalies: Matt Pickens
• Defenders: Julien Baudet, Cory Gibbs, Kosuke Kimura, Drew Moor
• Midfielders: Colin Clark, Nick LaBrocca, Pablo Mastroeni, Jamie Smith
• Forwards: Conor Casey  and Omar Cummings

My prognostications were not far off.  The lone miss was Cory Gibbs rather than Jordan Harvey.  The choice surprises considering that Harvey started all but one game in 2009.  Gibbs has more experience, demands a higher salary, and has struggled with staying healthy.  

From the list Rapids fans can glean that Gary Smith has shown his first choice squad and his second choice squad.  That does not mean that he would like to lose any players, but when push comes to shove the protected guys are the ones that the team wouldn't want to risk losing.

Will the team lose anyone? Rapids players have been safe in recent  expansion drafts.  This year might be an exception.  Piotr Nowak likes solid hard working soccer citizens and the Rapids have left two exposed.  Those players are Jordan Harvey and Scott Palguta.  Both players had a solid 2009 season, and both are the type of players that the Union can surround with more expensive talent.  

On Wednesday Smith will be hoping his  players get passed over by the Union, but this year he may not want to hold his breath.