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The Smart Politics of the Sonics' Departure
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It is little secret that many conservatives - and a goodly number of liberals too - loathe public subsidies for sports facilities benefiting private enterprise. Moreover, it's difficult not to argue with detractors who criticize the current product and economic model of the NBA. This blogger - even as he was sorry to see the Sonics go - no longer watches the NBA and hasn't been to a Sonics game in a decade. Yet, the politics of the issue deserve to be viewed through an entirely different lens.
Already the tepid state activity to support the City of Seattle's efforts to retain the Sonics has resulted in contrasts in the Governor's race. Dino Rossi likens the Sonics' flight from town as another failure in leadership from Olympia. Christine Gregoire offers lots of reasons to explain why state government couldn't get the job done. This is a familiar theme.
Remember, however, just how Dino Rossi made the 2004 race for Governor close: by outperforming the rest of the Republican ticket in key demographic groups. See for example, the Washington State exit polls for President and Governor that year:
- George Bush lost white men to John Kerry by one point; Dino Rossi beat Christine Gregoire by eight.
- Bush beat Kerry by 10 points in the $50,000 - $75,000 income bracket; Rossi beat Gregoire by 17.
- Similarly, Bush lost the $75,000 - $100,000 bracket by 12 to Kerry; Rossi won it by three (and let's stipulate, both income brackets are the heart of the middle class in the Puget Sound metropolitan region).
- Bush lost union members by 17 points; Rossi lost them by only eight.
- Bush and Kerry tied in the suburbs (a huge 46% of the electorate). Rossi won them by six.
- Lastly, a big one. Bush lost the urban Puget Sound area (outside King County) by five points. Rossi won it by six.
Thus, it should be little surprise Rossi won the closest thing this state has to a pure swing county - Snohomish - by over 2% while Kerry was beating Bush by 7.5%.
With all that in mind, recall from where the true public outcry is coming regarding the departure of the Sonics: the sports pages of Seattle area newspapers and local sports talk radio.
Dino Rossi succeed in 2004 in significant part by doing better than other Republicans among white working/middle class men in the Seattle suburbs. Who listens to sports radio and regularly partakes of the Seattle area sports pages? People in the same demographic.
That's why Change our Gov's latest "Sonics" ad on KJR-AM is a smart play. Campaigns often turn on expected twists. The current status quo in Olympia getting flayed on sports radio definitely fits that bill.
Conservatives don't like public dollars supporting stadiums and arenas for professional sports. Many a sports fan isn't all that enamored with the modern NBA. All fair points. But at the same time, the modern era likewise rarely sees an opportunity for half the cost of remodeling a public, multi-use facility in a downtown urban area to be paid for by private funds.
All the state had to do to make that even possible was grant the King County Council the authority to extend an existing, special-use tax. The state didn't have to spend a dime to show it cared. Yet the Legislature and the Governor couldn't even find a way to bring it to a vote.
Agree with keeping the Sonics or not, this whole affair does fall right in the wheelhouse of a failure of leadership. The sports pundits are already all over this - creating an overt political tone to normally apolitical discourse. Now Change our Gov is piling on, with good cause.
All of which is creating a political dialogue that is decidedly unfavorable to the sitting incumbent, right in the heart of a swing demographic from 2004. Wherever one stands on the Sonics - and public dollars for pro sports facilities in general - that's a dynamic worth watching.
Originally posted at Sound Politics.
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